Manchester City host Aston Villa on the final day of the Premier League season, in what will be Pep Guardiola’s final game, after ten remarkable years at the club. City can only finish second, while Aston Villa may have a bit of a hangover after their Europa League win on Thursday. Find our match preview and best bets below.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City to Win & Both Teams to Score – No | 11/8 @ Bet365 (42.1%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | City have 16 clean sheets (highest in the league) and have only conceded 33 in 37 matches. Villa arrive here after their Europa League triumph in Istanbul on Wednesday and may have a bit of a hangover. City on the other hand will want to end Pep Guardiola, John Stones and Bernardo Silva’s last game with a win and this could be a celebration with a commanding win to nil. |
| Under 2.5 Cards | 1/1 @ Bet365 (50%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | With those factors in mind, backing fewer cards could be the value angle here. Andrew Madley is the referee and has shown under 2.5 cards in five of his last six final day matches, with a repeat priced at 5/6 looking appealing. A play on a very low card count could also be worth considering given the context of the fixture. |
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Odds correct at the time of writing.
How both teams go into Man City vs Aston Villa
Manchester City’s title challenge is already over after their draw with Bournemouth confirmed Arsenal as Premier League champions for the first time since 2004. The focus now turns to the Etihad, where Pep Guardiola is expected to take charge of his final game as manager and end his spell in charge on a day of celebration.
Aston Villa endured a mixed second half of the season but still secured Champions League qualification after beating Liverpool last Friday, before lifting the Europa League on Wednesday. The focus now shifts to rotation, with Unai Emery expected to make several changes for the trip to Manchester given there is little riding on the final day.
Man City team news
Manchester City head into the final day with a fully fit squad for the first time in months, giving Pep Guardiola plenty of options for his last game in charge. Rayan Cherki is in contention to return to the starting XI after being named on the bench against Bournemouth, with Guardiola set to select his final Manchester City lineup as manager.
Aston Villa team news
Aston Villa could be without Emiliano Martinez after he picked up a finger injury shortly before the Europa League final, with Marco Bizot expected to step in if needed. Boubacar Kamara is the only other player ruled out for the final day.
Man City vs Aston Villa odds
Season Form & Standings
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 2 | 37 | 23 | 9 | 5 | 76 | 33 | +43 | 78 |
| Aston Villa | 4 | 37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 54 | 48 | +6 | 62 |
Head-to-head
Last 6 Meetings
Manchester City have won four of the last six meetings, with Villa winning twice – both at home. City scored 11 in those games to Villa’s 7.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26/10/25 | Aston Villa 1-0 Man City | Premier League |
| 22/04/25 | Man City 2-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 21/12/24 | Aston Villa 2-1 Man City | Premier League |
| 03/04/24 | Man City 4-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 06/12/23 | Aston Villa 1-0 Man City | Premier League |
| 12/02/23 | Man City 3-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Final Thoughts
After the news of Pep Guardiola’s departure and off the back of Aston Villa’s win in the Europa League, we are backing the hosts to win without conceding at 11/8 @ Bet365 (42.1%) for a value finish to the campaign.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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