Leeds and Burnley kick off Gameweek 35 in the Premier League as they face off at Elland Road on Friday evening. The hosts are looking to take another step towards confirming their position in the league, while Burnley have already had their relegation down to the second tier confirmed. Find our match preview and best bets below.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why I’m Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Okafor 2+ shots on target | 2/1 @ Boylesports (33.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Noah Okafor has made an impressive start to life at Leeds, netting seven times in the Premier League so far, with five of those coming in his last six outings. The Swiss forward is clearly hitting top gear and looks a strong candidate to find the net again on Friday night. He tested the keeper twice in matches against Wolves and Manchester United, and there’s every reason to expect a similar threat here. Burnley have allowed more shots on target than any other side in the league this season (194), which only strengthens his case. |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Anytime Scorer | 1/1 @ BetVictor (50%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin has looked revitalised since arriving on a free from Everton last summer. With one eye on securing a place in England’s World Cup squad, his return of 11 Premier League goals in the 2025/26 season has put him firmly in contention. That tally is notable given he only hit double figures twice in nine seasons at Everton. He also found the net in his most recent home game, and Elland Road has been a happy hunting ground—six of his league goals have come there. Against Burnley, he’s been particularly effective too, scoring four times in his last six meetings with them during his Everton days. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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How both teams go into Leeds vs Burnley
Forty points is usually enough to stay up, but that might not be the case this season. Four teams are hovering around that mark going into the final month, and the battle to avoid relegation is still wide open. Leeds have already hit 40, but they are not safe yet if results turn against them.
Form offers some encouragement. Leeds have taken nine points from their last five games and sit sixth in that table, just behind Nottingham Forest. They also have a strong record against struggling sides, winning their last five against relegated teams by an 18-3 aggregate score.
Burnley arrive with questions over their motivation after relegation was confirmed by a 1-0 defeat to Manchester City last week. Scott Parker’s side have won just once in their last 25 matches, though that victory came when survival was still within reach.
Their away form offers a hint of hope, with nine points from their last 13 on the road. But they have lost their last three away games, conceding nine goals in defeats to Everton, Fulham and Nottingham Forest, so momentum is not on their side heading into Elland Road.
Leeds team news
Leeds have few injury concerns, though Ilia Gruev is out for the season and Gabriel Gudmundsson faces a late fitness check. Dominic Calvert-Lewin still leads the scoring charts with 11 goals but has only one in his last eight games, while Noah Okafor is the man in form, scoring five of his seven goals since February.
Burnley team news
Burnley are dealing with a few absentees, with Josh Cullen, Connor Roberts and Jordan Beyer ruled out, while Hannibal Mejbri, Axel Tuanzebe and Zeki Amdouni are close to returning. Zian Flemming is their main threat and needs one more goal to reach double figures.
Season Form & Standings
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 15th | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 40 |
| Burnley | 19th | 34 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 34 | 68 | -34 | 20 |
Head-to-Head
Recent Meetings
These two have met eight times in recent years. Burnley won the reverse fixture 2-0 back in October, but Leeds have had the better of it over the longer term. Goals have been at a premium — just 2.25 per match on average.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18/10/25 | Burnley 2-0 Leeds United | Premier League |
| 27/01/25 | Burnley 0-0 Leeds United | Championship |
| 14/09/24 | Leeds United 0-1 Burnley | Championship |
| 02/01/22 | Leeds United 3-1 Burnley | Premier League |
| 29/08/21 | Burnley 1-1 Leeds United | Premier League |
| 15/05/21 | Burnley 0-4 Leeds United | Premier League |
| 27/12/20 | Leeds United 1-0 Burnley | Premier League |
| 19/09/17 | Burnley 2-2 Leeds United | League Cup |
Can Leeds Punish Burnley’s Defensive Frailty? Final Thoughts
Burnley are running out of road. Their defensive numbers are as bad as you’ll see in the top flight, and Leeds — for all their missed chances — have enough to get something here. The main value sits in the Shots market, with Noah Okafor 2+ shots on target at 2/1 with Boylesports the standout. If you want a goalscorer, Calvert-Lewin at 1/1 with BetVictor is the pick, but don’t lump on — Leeds are wasteful, but Burnley are obliging. One for small stakes and a bit of patience.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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