Elland Road sets the stage for a pivotal encounter as Leeds United host Aston Villa on Sunday, 23 November.
While Villa arrive with top-six ambitions, Leeds are desperate to halt a worrying slide after a string of defensive mishaps. This fixture has produced drama and goals in recent years, and with both sides seeking momentum, the stakes could not be higher.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on defensive trends, attacking efficiency, and recent form, here are our top betting recommendations for this clash. We’re particularly confident in Aston Villa to claim all three points, thanks to a more cohesive midfield, superior defensive record, and Leeds’ struggles converting their chances.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to Win | 27/20 @ SBK (42.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | A statistical analysis suggests a difficult match for Leeds United against Aston Villa. Villa currently sits 10 places above Leeds in the Premier League table, in 6th position compared to Leeds’ 16th. Recent form heavily favours Aston Villa. They have won four of their last six league matches, including a decisive 4-0 victory over Bournemouth in their most recent game. In contrast, Leeds have lost their last two Premier League fixtures, a 3-1 away loss to Nottingham Forest and a 3-0 defeat to Brighton. Historically, the fixture has been closely contested, but Villa holds the edge. In 31 matches since 1995, Villa has won 12, Leeds 8, with 11 draws. Villa also has a slightly better goals-per-game average in these encounters. |
| Buendia To Score Or Assist | 2/1 @ SBK (33.3%) | ⭐⭐ | Buendía is in impressive form this season, with a direct goal involvement (goals and assists combined) of 5 in 9 Premier League appearances. This translates to a goal involvement of 1.05 per 90 minutes, placing him in the top 99th percentile of all Premier League players. His non-penalty expected goals (npxG) figure of 0.57 per 90 minutes further underscores his consistent attacking threat. This attacking prowess is set against a Leeds United defence that has shown considerable vulnerability. They have conceded two or more goals in five of their last six Premier League matches. Overall this season, Leeds have conceded 20 goals in 11 games, a stark contrast to their 10 goals scored. Furthermore, Buendía has a history of creating chances. His key strengths are listed as providing through balls and key passes. Considering Leeds’ recent defensive struggles, it is highly probable that a player of Buendía’s creative and finishing ability will be able to exploit these weaknesses and add to his goal and assist tally for the season. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Leeds United vs Aston Villa match odds
How both teams head into Leeds United vs Aston Villa
Leeds enter this game slipping dangerously close to the drop zone. They’ve lost four of their last five games and pressure is building on Daniel Farke, with the German head coach now the favourite to be the next Premier League manager to leave his post. It’s been a worrying trend for Leeds in recent weeks, with the club conceding 11 goals in their last five games and only scoring four in that period. With Leeds sitting just one point above the relegation zone, Farke will need to turn things around quickly or his job could be on the line.
In contrast, Aston Villa have been in great form in recent weeks, winning four of their last five and putting a poor start to the season behind them. There have been impressive wins in that period too, with Tottenham, Man City and Bournemouth all falling to Unai Emery’s side. Goals have still been hard to come by for Villa, though, especially Ollie Watkins poor run of form in front of goal and they’ll need to be more proficient in front of goal if they wish to continue their excellent run. They’ve scored 13 goals in 11 games but only conceded 10, with their defensive strength on full show in recent games.
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Leeds United team news
Leeds only have two injuries worries heading into this game, with both Wilfried Gnonto and Sebastiaan Bornauw having doubts over their availability. Daniel Farke is hopeful both will be available but it could be touch and go if they feature.
Aston Villa team news
Tyrone Mings and Andres Garcia are the only two confirmed absentees for Aston Villa and there could be good news for them with other players who have missed games through injury. Ezri Konsa, Amadou Onana, Lamare Bogarde and Matty Cash could all feature having missed a period of action recently.
Season Form & Standings
Both teams have played 11 matches. Aston Villa sit in 6th place, while Leeds United find themselves hovering above the drop zone in 16th. Villa’s 5 wins and positive goal difference (+3) underline their solidity, whereas Leeds’ defensive woes (20 conceded, -10 GD) make it tough to trust them in tight games.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 6 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 18 |
| Leeds United | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 11 |
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
The last twelve meetings between these sides have been evenly contested—Aston Villa hold four wins, Leeds three, with five draws. The goal tally is perfectly level at 15 apiece. Recent games have swung both ways, with plenty of drama.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13/01/23 | Aston Villa 2-1 Leeds United | Premier League |
| 02/10/22 | Leeds United 0-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 10/03/22 | Leeds United 0-3 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 09/02/22 | Aston Villa 3-3 Leeds United | Premier League |
| 27/02/21 | Leeds United 0-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 23/10/20 | Aston Villa 0-3 Leeds United | Premier League |
Conclusion
Will Aston Villa’s midfield control and defensive discipline be enough to overcome a Leeds side fighting for every point? On balance, Villa’s balance across the pitch and sharper finishing set them apart, making 27/20 @ SBK an appealing pick for the away win. Leeds will need a near-perfect display to disrupt Villa’s rhythm and capitalise on rare opportunities.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.