Italy take on Northern Ireland in a Path A World Cup qualifier with both sides hoping to advance to the final against Wales or Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Italy endured a disappointing qualifying campaign, finishing second behind Norway in Group I, while Northern Ireland finished third in Group A but qualified for the playoffs due to their Nations League position. Kick-off is set for Thursday at 7:45pm with both sides hoping for a victory.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Italy’s superior squad and higher FIFA ranking, coupled of Northern Ireland’s struggles in front of goal, we’re backing Gli Azzurri to win the game to nil. For a little more value, we’re backing Italy to win 3-0 in a commanding performance.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy to win 3-0 | 13/2 @ BOYLE Sports (13.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Italy to win 3-0 looks strong: they’ve scored 3+ goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, including 3-0 and 5-0 wins, showing attacking depth. Northern Ireland average under 1 goal per game recently and have failed to beat Italy in 8 meetings, supporting a dominant, clean-sheet home victory. |
| Italy to win to nil | 19/20 @ William Hill (51.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Italy to win to nil is a strong bet: they’ve conceded 0 goals in 4 of the last 6 head-to-head meetings, with a dominant 10-0 aggregate record against Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland average under 1 goal per game recently and lost 1-0 or failed to score in multiple qualifiers. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Qualifying Form & Standings
Italy’s World Cup 2026 qualifying campaign combined attacking firepower with familiar inconsistency, ultimately forcing them into the play-offs. The Azzurri finished second in UEFA Group I with 18 points from eight matches (six wins, zero draws, two defeats), scoring 21 goals and conceding 12 for a +9 goal difference.
Their campaign began poorly with a 3–0 defeat to Norway, who went on to win the group with a perfect record. However, Italy responded emphatically, including a 5–0 win over Estonia and a chaotic 5–4 victory against Israel, underlining both attacking quality and defensive vulnerability.
Statistically, Italy averaged 2.6 goals per game, with Mateo Retegui leading the scoring charts on five goals, supported by Moise Kean and Giacomo Raspador .
Despite winning six of eight matches, defensive lapses – particularly against Norway – proved decisive, leaving Italy reliant on the play-offs to avoid a third consecutive World Cup absence.
Northern Ireland endured a mixed World Cup 2026 qualifying campaign, finishing third in their UEFA group with nine points from six matches (three wins, three defeats). Their seven goals scored and six conceded yielded a narrow +1 goal difference, highlighting a typically disciplined but limited attacking output.
Michael O’Neill’s side averaged just 1.17 goals per game with 40.7% possession, underlining a reactive, defence-first approach. Despite this, they recorded notable wins, including a 2–0 victory over Slovakia and a 1–0 success against Luxembourg to close the campaign.
However, defeats to group leaders Germany—most notably 3–1 away and 1–0 at home—proved decisive.
Ultimately, Northern Ireland won 50% of their matches at home but struggled away, limiting their challenge for automatic qualification.
Despite finishing outside the top two, Nations League performance ensured a play-off route, keeping their World Cup hopes alive.
Italy team news
Italy’s team news ahead of their World Cup play‑off semi‑final against Northern Ireland sees several key absences that could shape Gennaro Gattuso’s XI. Forward Federico Chiesa has withdrawn from the squad due to fitness issues, leaving a gap in attack. Sandro Tonali is also doubtful, and other defensive concerns surround Gianluca Mancini and Alessandro Bastoni, who are both flagged with injury doubts in the build‑up.
Italy boss Gattuso has named a 28‑man squad for the crucial tie, emphasising mental strength given past qualification heartbreaks, including missing the 2018 and 2022 tournaments.
Young forward Francesco Esposito’s rising form has been highlighted as a potential attacking spark amid the absences, offering fresh options in a squad under pressure to secure World Cup qualification.
Northern Ireland team news
Ahead of their World Cup play‑off semi‑final against Italy, Northern Ireland’s squad news highlights a few key absences and an exciting addition. Defender Dan Ballard and full‑back Conor Bradley are both ruled out through injury, depriving manager Michael O’Neill of two regular starters.
However, there’s a boost with Liverpool winger Kieran Morrison earning his first senior call‑up, adding fresh attacking options to compensate for missing personnel.
O’Neill has confirmed his play‑off squad, blending experienced campaigners with emerging talent as Northern Ireland chase a first World Cup finals appearance since 1986.
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
These two nations have met six times in competitive action over the years, with Northern Ireland winning just one of those ties, all the way back in 1958. Italy have won two of the four meetings since that point with Northern Ireland failing to score a goal in that time.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15/11/21 | Northern Ireland 0-0 Italy | World Cup qualifying |
| 25/03/21 | Italy 2-0 Northern Ireland | World Cup qualifying |
| 11/10/11 | Italy 3-0 Northern Ireland | European Championship qualifying |
| 08/10/10 | Northern Ireland 0-0 Italy | European Championship qualifying |
| 15/01/58 | Northern Ireland 2-1 Italy | World Cup qualifying |
| 25/04/57 | Italy 1-0 Northern Ireland | World Cup qualifying |
Conclusion: Who advances to the final?
Italy and Northern Ireland take to the field at New Balance Arena on Thursday with both sides hoping for a victory. We’re backing Italy to win 3-0 at 13/2 with BOYLE Sports but for those that fancy a safer bet we like the value in backing Italy to win to nil at 19/20 with William Hill.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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