On recent form, Ipswich Town look the more controlled side but struggle to convert chances, while Derby County have firepower in Carlton Morris but leak goals. Market odds point to Ipswich as strong favourites, but Derby’s attack could surprise. Expect tactical contrast: possession vs direct play.
Market Snapshot & Implied Probability
The 1X2 market paints a clear picture. Ipswich Town are firm favourites with 1/2 (66.7%), the draw is less likely according to the books at 29/10, and Derby County are outsiders at 5/1(16.7%)./
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Head-to-head
Last 8 Meetings
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 01/04/23 | Derby County 0-2 Ipswich Town | League One |
| 21/10/22 | Ipswich Town 1-0 Derby County | League One |
| 13/02/19 | Ipswich Town 1-1 Derby County | Championship |
| 21/08/18 | Derby County 2-0 Ipswich Town | Championship |
In the last four meetings, Ipswich have the edge with two wins, Derby have taken one, and there’s been a single draw. Matches have tended to be low-scoring (eight goals in four games, 2.0 per match), with the away side winning twice and only one match ending level.
Season Form & Standings
2025/26 season to date
| Team | League Position | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Derby County | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 |
Both sides have made slow starts, with Ipswich narrowly ahead in the table. Derby have scored more but conceded almost three per game—defensive woes that make them vulnerable.
Team News & Line-ups
- Ali Al-Hamadi is out due to a calf injury that is expected to keep him sidelined until mid-September at the earliest. Conor Townsend, Harry Clarke and Wes Burns are all a doubt.
Curtis Nelson, Lars-Jorgen Salvesen, Sondre Langas, Corey Blackett-Taylor and Owen Beck are all suffering with injuries. Kane Wilson has recently stepped up his recovery from a minor knee operation, although it remains to be seen whether he will be ready for Saturday’s fixture.
- Ipswich could continue with a possession-heavy 4-2-3-1, while Derby are likely to start with Carlton Morris leading the line in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1.
Potential Match-Winners
- Carlton Morris (Derby County): 3 goals in 3 matches (1.0 per game), 2 big chances converted, 25 duels won, but 0% shot accuracy—relies on volume and positioning.
- Sammie Szmodics (Ipswich Town): Priced at 6/4 (40.0%) anytime scorer with Betfred, underlining his threat from advanced midfield.
- George Hirst (Ipswich Town): 5/1 (16.7%) with bet365 to score first—leads the line and gets into good areas.
Tactical Trends & Stats to Watch
Ipswich are all about control, averaging 57.1% possession and 82% pass accuracy. Their 36 shots (12 per game) suggest a high-volume approach, but only 15.4% of those are on target—finishing is a concern, with just 2 goals from 2.73 xG. Derby, by contrast, have less of the ball (43.7% possession) and lower pass accuracy (76.1%), but their direct play yields more shots on target (53.3% accuracy) from fewer attempts. Derby’s biggest weakness is at the back: 9 conceded in 3, no clean sheets, and a tendency to drop points from winning positions (6 already lost this season).
Set pieces could matter—Ipswich average 4.7 corners per game, Derby 4.3. Both sides have yellow card issues (7 each in 3 games), so discipline could swing key moments. Expect Ipswich to press high and look to create through midfield, while Derby will play for quick transitions, using Morris as the focal point.
Best Bets & Predictions
With Ipswich’s shot volume but finishing issues, and Derby’s defensive record, there are value angles in player and team props. Here are the top picks:
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime Goalscorer | Sammie Szmodics | 6/4 (40.0%) | Betfred | Derby concede 3 per game, Szmodics is Ipswich’s key late runner |
| Both Teams To Score | No | 8/11 (57.9%) | bet365 | 3 of last 4 H2Hs saw at least one side blank; Derby’s goals often come in bunches |
| Correct Score | 1-0 Ipswich | 5/1 (16.7%) | bet365 | Ipswich’s control rarely yields big scores but Derby’s back line offers hope |
| To Win To Nil | Ipswich | 11/8 (42.1%) | bet365 | Derby failed to score in 2 of last 4 vs Ipswich; home side’s ball retention key |
| Over/Under 2.5 Goals | Under 2.5 | 3/4 (57.1%) | Betfair | Only 8 goals in last 4 H2Hs; both teams’ recent attack output underwhelming |
Conclusion
Can Ipswich’s control finally yield a statement win or will Derby’s direct threat expose their finishing woes? The numbers lean towards a close-fought home victory, but Carlton Morris and Derby’s set-piece threat keep the upset in play. Backing Sammie Szmodics to score anytime at 6/4 with Betfred looks the standout value in a match where quality chances may be at a premium.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.