Lazio make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina on Monday, 13 April, with both sides needing a result for very different reasons.
While Lazio are eyeing a late push for the European spots, Fiorentina are looking to steer clear of the Serie A relegation scrap. The key storyline is Lazio’s stubborn defence against a Fiorentina side that scores more but concedes far too easily. Kick-off is set for 19:45, and the stats suggest a tactical clash that should intrigue both neutrals and punters alike.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on the numbers, our strongest recommendation is a draw in the Match Result market, with value found in the defensive solidity of Lazio and Fiorentina’s struggles to turn chances into wins. We also see potential in the Under 2.5 Goals market given Lazio’s clean sheet record and Fiorentina’s inefficiency in front of goal.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 11/5 @ Bet365 (31.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Both sides have drawn 11 of 31 matches this season, and their last league meeting finished 2-2. Fiorentina struggle to convert chances while Lazio are hard to break down, making a stalemate a strong possibility at a generous price. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 4/6 @ Bet365 (60.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Lazio have kept 14 clean sheets (45% of games), while Fiorentina’s shot accuracy is just 29.9%. That leans towards a low-scoring affair, especially with both teams lacking an elite finisher this season. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Season Form & Standings
Fiorentina’s 23% win rate and negative goal difference underline their struggles, while Lazio’s 35% win rate and 14 clean sheets have kept them in the top half despite scoring just four fewer goals than their hosts.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 15 | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 32 |
| Lazio | 9 | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 44 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Moise Kean (Fiorentina): Brings top-level experience and is likely to be involved in any attacking threat for the hosts. Watch for his movement in the box and willingness to shoot.
- Albert Guðmundsson (Fiorentina): A creative spark and potential set-piece threat who can make something out of nothing.
- Tijjani Noslin (Lazio): Offers pace and unpredictability up top, capable of stretching Fiorentina’s leaky back line.
- Boulaye Dia (Lazio): Has the instinct to capitalise on Fiorentina’s defensive lapses, especially on the counter.
With no Fiorentina or Lazio player among the league’s top 3 for goals or assists, both teams rely on a collective rather than an individual star – but these names carry the most threat based on current squad roles.
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
Only two of the last six meetings between these two sides have ended in a draw, with Fiorentina winning three times, all by a 2-1 margin, and Lazio picking up one win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 07/01/26 | Lazio 2-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 26/01/25 | Lazio 1-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 22/09/24 | Fiorentina 2-1 Lazio | Serie A |
| 26/02/24 | Fiorentina 2-1 Lazio | Serie A |
| 30/10/23 | Lazio 1-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 29/01/23 | Lazio 1-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
Will Lazio’s Defence Win the Day or Can Fiorentina Find a Way?
This looks like a classic case of attack vs defence: Fiorentina create plenty but are wasteful, while Lazio are hard to break down but don’t blow teams away. With both teams drawing over a third of their matches and recent head-to-heads often tight, the draw at 11/5 with Bet365 (31.3%) stands out as value. If you’re looking for a different angle, under 2.5 goals has strong statistical backing too.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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