Seven days after an excellent 3-0 win over Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League quarter-final first leg, Crystal Palace travel to Italy looking to finish the job and reach the semi-finals. The game kicks off at 8:00 pm in Florence, and you can find our match preview and best bets below.
Best bets & predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score | 9/10 @ Bet365 (52.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | More than 2.5 goals have been scored in 10 of the home side’s 13 European fixtures this season, and six of Palace’s last nine matches have also featured three goals or more. The Eagles have managed to score in 10 of their 13 European games so far, and both sides have found the net in five of their last nine outings.. |
| Mateta to Score First | 5/1 @ Bet365 (16.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Jean Philippe Mateta has made an impressive return to the starting lineup, scoring three goals across his last two games. His strength and presence proved difficult for Fiorentina to handle last week, where he opened the scoring from the penalty spot at Selhurst Park. That strike set the tone for the match and he looks a strong candidate to score first again, with odds of 5/1 available at most bookmakers. |
How both teams go into Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace
Fiorentina head into the second leg on the back foot after a heavy 3-0 defeat at Selhurst Park last week. It is a rare situation for the Italian side, who have built a strong reputation in the latter stages of this competition but now face a deficit they have never overturned before.
History is not on their side either. Fiorentina have lost all three previous ties when trailing by this margin in Europe, despite winning 10 of their 11 quarter final matchups overall. A recent win over Lazio has eased domestic pressure, but they will need a huge performance in Florence if they are to turn this tie around.
Oliver Glasner’s team hold a strong lead, though they may have to balance attacking intent with game management in Italy.
Palace are in uncharted territory after their dominant first leg display, with Ismaila Sarr playing a key role once again. The winger has been in top form in the knockout rounds, while the Eagles arrive full of confidence having lost just one of their last 10 games.
Fiorentina team news
Fiorentina will be without Dodo for the second leg after his booking in the first meeting, while several players are walking a disciplinary tightrope. Marin Pongracic, Pietro Comuzzo, Rolando Mandragora, Cher Ndour, Nicolo Fagioli and Albert Gudmundsson could all face a suspension if they are booked again.
Moise Kean is also a doubt with a calf issue, adding to the hosts’ concerns, while Fabiano Parisi and Niccolo Fortini may not be available and Tariq Lamptey is ruled out. If Kean misses out, Fiorentina are likely to look towards Roberto Piccoli, Gudmundsson and Ndour to provide the attacking threat.
Crystal Palace team news
Crystal Palace will once again look to Ismaila Sarr for inspiration in the final third. The winger has scored six times in the Conference League this season, with only two players across the competition ahead of him in the scoring charts, and he has been especially decisive since the knockout rounds began.
Jean Philippe Mateta is also in strong form, netting three goals in his last two matches and now chasing a third straight game on the scoresheet for the first time this season. Palace are largely close to full strength, but Eddie Nketiah and Cheick Doucoure remain unavailable, while Evann Gueessand is a doubt with a knock.
Head-to-head
There has only been one competitive meeting in history between Crystal Palace and Fiorentina. That came in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League quarter-final, where Palace won 3–0 at Selhurst Park.
Conclusion
After their 3-0 win in the first leg it’s hard to see past Crystal Palace qualifying for the semi-finals. Avoid the match result and back both teams to score at 10/11, or get behind Mateta to find the net first, in a repeat of last week at 5/1.