Second-placed Borussia Dortmund welcome Mainz to Signal Iduna Park in a Bundesliga match that pits title chasers against relegation battlers.
Dortmund have lost just once all season and boast a formidable home record, while Mainz are struggling near the drop zone. Kick-off is at 19:30 on Friday 13 February, with both sides desperate for points – but for very different reasons.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on the current gulf in form, defensive records, and recent head-to-head meetings, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in backing a high-scoring Dortmund win, and see potential value in opposing both teams to score given Mainz’s conversion issues.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 Goals | Bet365 13/10 (43.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | We’re backing goals, with Dortmund averaging over two per game and Mainz conceding more than 1.5 per match. Four of the last six meetings have seen three or more goals. |
| Both Teams To Score: No | Betfair 13/10 (43.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Mainz have struggled to convert their chances and Dortmund have kept 10 clean sheets in 21 games. Dortmund’s defence could shut out a Mainz side with just 25 goals this season. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Season Form & Standings
Dortmund have been among the league’s most consistent sides, sitting second with 48 points from 21 matches and a goal difference of +23. Mainz, by contrast, are mired in 14th and have won just five times all campaign, conceding 33 goals in the process. Here’s how both teams stand:
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 43 | 20 | +23 | 48 |
| Mainz | 14 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 21 |
Dortmund’s attack is the most dangerous among these two, with 43 goals scored and a spread of scorers, including 10 from defenders. Mainz have struggled to convert chances, missing almost as many big chances as they create.
Potential Match-Winners
- Serhou Guirassy (Dortmund) – Brings elite movement and is a reliable focal point, benefitting from Dortmund’s 31 assists this campaign.
- Julian Brandt (Dortmund) – A creative hub in midfield, helping drive an 84.4% team pass accuracy and 53.9% average possession.
- Max Beier (Dortmund) – Adds pace and directness, able to exploit Mainz’s leaky defence, which has conceded 225 shots inside the box this season.
- Daniel Batz (Mainz) – Mainz’s goalkeeper has been one of the busiest in the league, making 73 saves already, and may need a standout display to keep his side in it.
Notably, Dortmund’s attacking threat is spread throughout their squad, including defenders who have contributed 10 goals so far – making them a danger from set pieces as well.
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
Dortmund have won four of the last six meetings between these sides, with away wins featuring prominently. Mainz, however, have caused the odd upset in this fixture, including a 3-1 home win last season.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27/09/25 | Mainz 0-2 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 30/03/25 | Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Mainz | Bundesliga |
| 09/11/24 | Mainz 3-1 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 11/05/24 | Mainz 3-0 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 19/12/23 | Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Mainz | Bundesliga |
Conclusion: Will Dortmund’s class tell?
Dortmund have the statistical edge in nearly every department – from goals scored and defensive solidity to pass accuracy and clean sheets. Mainz’s leaky defence and lack of attacking efficiency make this a daunting challenge. The best value could be on a high-scoring Dortmund win, with Over 3.5 Goals at 13/10 (43.5%) with Bet365 our headline pick for those expecting another open contest.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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