Bologna welcome Fiorentina for a crucial Serie A clash, with both sides seeking to change the narrative of their campaigns.
Bologna have been quietly efficient this season, sitting in the top half with a blend of defensive solidity and attacking teamwork, while Fiorentina find themselves in a battle to climb clear of the drop zone. Kick-off is set for 18 January, and with recent head-to-heads often tightly contested, there’s plenty at stake for both managers and bettors.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on underlying numbers and recent trends, our best bets focus on Bologna’s home edge and Fiorentina’s defensive struggles. We’re especially confident in a home win, while Both Teams To Score looks a value pick given both sides’ attacking intent but questionable finishing. Here are our top recommended bets for this match-up:
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to Win | 21/20 @ Bet365 (48.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We are backing Bologna because they’ve notched more goals, more assists and kept twice as many clean sheets as Fiorentina this season. Their home form and Fiorentina’s leaky defence (31 conceded) give the hosts a strong edge at a generous price. |
| Both Teams To Score – Yes | 4/5 @ Bet365 (55.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | There could be value here due to both teams’ attacking approach. BTTS has landed in 3 of the last 5 meetings and both sides average over 1 goal per game, with Fiorentina’s high shot volume often offset by defensive lapses. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
BetMGM sign-up offer: Get £40 in bonuses when you bet £10
Not signed up to BetMGM yet? Here's how eligible readers* can take advantage of their welcome offer:
- Open an account at BetMGM using this link.
- Select the Sports Welcome Offer.
- Get the offer from the ‘My Offers’ page.
- Deposit and place a £10 bet at odds of 1/1 (2.0) or greater.
- When it settles, unlock £40 in bonuses
New customers only. 7 days to place qualifying bet of £10 at 1/1 (2.0) to receive 4 x £10 Free Bets. 7 day expiry. Exclusions apply. Stake not returned. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. 18+ GambleAware.org
Season Form & Standings
Bologna are thriving in the top half, currently 8th after 20 matches, while Fiorentina are in the bottom three, 18th after 20 games. The gap in points (Bologna 30, Fiorentina 14) reflects the difference in both defensive resilience and attacking output. Bologna have a positive goal difference and a win ratio four times that of Fiorentina, who have struggled for results despite decent possession and passing stats.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna | 8 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 30 |
| Fiorentina | 18 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 14 |
Potential Match-Winners
Neither side boasts a top league scorer, but teamwork is key for both. For Bologna, Riccardo Orsolini and Lewis Ferguson have been creative sparks, supporting an attack that averages 1.37 goals per match. Up front, Ciro Immobile brings experience and a knack for finding space, while Emil Holm adds width and delivery from defence. For Fiorentina, Moise Kean and Albert Gudmundsson are likely to be focal points, but the issue has been converting high shot volume (13.8 per game) into goals, with only 30.6% shot accuracy. In midfield, Rolando Mandragora and Simon Sohm will be tasked with disrupting Bologna’s passing rhythm and launching quick transitions.
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
Fiorentina have the edge over the last six meetings, winning three to Bologna’s two, with one draw. However, the last two clashes have ended close or level, suggesting a narrowing gap. Here’s a look at the most recent encounters:
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26/10/25 | Fiorentina 2-2 Bologna | Serie A |
| 18/05/25 | Fiorentina 3-2 Bologna | Serie A |
| 15/12/24 | Bologna 1-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 14/02/24 | Bologna 2-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 12/11/23 | Fiorentina 2-1 Bologna | Serie A |
Will Bologna’s Balance Overcome Fiorentina’s Possession?
Bologna’s blend of efficient attacking and solid defence stands in contrast to Fiorentina’s possession-heavy but porous approach. With home advantage and Fiorentina’s defensive record, the value lies with Bologna to take all three points. If you’re looking to back the hosts, 21/20 @ Bet365 (48.8%) looks a strong way in.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Read more:
- Latest football news
- Football betting tips
- Best betting sites
- Best free bet offers
- Football accumulator tips
