Bayern München welcome Mainz 05 to the Allianz Arena in what appears to be a true mismatch of Bundesliga fortunes.
The league leaders are unbeaten and have dominated both in attack and defence this season, while Mainz 05 languish at the foot of the table with the division’s worst record. Kick-off is set for 4:30 PM on Saturday, and with Bayern having won 13 of their last 18 meetings with Mainz, this fixture comes loaded with expectation for the hosts.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on overwhelming attacking and defensive stats, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in Bayern to win to nil, given their defensive solidity and Mainz’s struggle to score.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern to Win to Nil | 8/13 @ Bet365 (61.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Backing because Bayern concede just 0.7 goals per game; Mainz average less than one goal scored. |
| Harry Kane Anytime Scorer | 4/9 @ Betfair (69.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Value here due to Kane’s 17 goals in 13 games (1.31 per match). |
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Odds correct at the time of writing.
Season Form & Standings
The gulf between these two is stark in the 2025/26 Bundesliga so far. Bayern München top the table unbeaten, with an astonishing +40 goal difference, while Mainz 05 are rooted to the bottom with just one victory and the league’s weakest attack and defence.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 1 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 9 | +40 | 37 |
| Mainz 05 | 18 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 6 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Harry Kane (Bayern): 17 goals in 13 games (1.31 per game), 60% shot accuracy, 68 penalty area touches. The league’s most prolific striker and a constant threat.
- Michael Olise (Bayern): 8 assists, 29 key passes, 94 touches in the opposition box (all per 13 games). The Bundesliga’s top creator.
- Luis Diaz (Bayern): 6 assists, 27 key passes, 88 penalty area touches. Drives much of Bayern’s left-sided attacks.
No Mainz player features among the league’s leaders for goals or assists, underlining the attacking gulf.
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
Bayern have dominated the recent history of this fixture, winning 13 of the last 18 meetings and outscoring Mainz 59 to 23 overall. In their last five clashes, Bayern have won three, including a commanding 8-1 victory.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26/04/25 | Bayern München 3-0 Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 14/12/24 | Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| 09/03/24 | Bayern München 8-1 Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 21/10/23 | Mainz 05 1-3 Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| 22/04/23 | Mainz 05 3-1 Bayern München | Bundesliga |
Will Bayern’s dominance continue?
All the underlying numbers point strongly towards another Bayern victory: they have the Bundesliga’s best attack and defence, the most in-form striker in Harry Kane, and their creative chief Michael Olise leads the league for assists. Mainz, meanwhile, have the division’s lowest output at both ends and have failed to trouble Bayern in recent meetings. For punters, 8/13 @ Bet365 on Bayern to win to nil stands out as the headline selection.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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