With just one point separating these two mid-table rivals, Athletic Bilbao welcome Osasuna to San Mamés for a Sunday afternoon clash that could prove decisive in shaping their final La Liga positions.
Kick-off is set for 18:00 on 21 April 2026. While Osasuna boast a slightly better campaign, Athletic’s improved underlying numbers and strong head-to-head record at home add complexity to the pre-match analysis.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on season-long performance, recent head-to-head trends and standout players, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in “Both Teams To Score – Yes” due to the attacking profiles and defensive vulnerabilities on display.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score – Yes | 20/21 @ Bet365 (51.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Both sides have scored and conceded freely this season (Athletic: 33 for, 45 against; Osasuna: 37 for, 38 against). Four of the last six encounters have seen both teams net. Both attacks can expose defensive weaknesses here. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 11/10 @ Bet365 (47.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Neither defence has been watertight, with a combined 83 goals conceded in 62 matches. Osasuna’s last three away games averaged 3.0 goals, and Athletic’s xG difference hints at matches being more open than the raw scores suggest. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Season Form & Standings
Both teams find themselves locked in mid-table, with Osasuna (9th, 39 pts) just edging Athletic Bilbao (11th, 38 pts). Athletic’s negative goal difference (-12) is a concern, but their expected goals (xG) suggest they have underperformed in front of goal and may be due some positive regression. Osasuna, meanwhile, have been more clinical, especially through star striker Ante Budimir.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 9 | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 39 |
| Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 38 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Ante Budimir (Osasuna): 16 league goals from an xG of 11.4 – Budimir is outperforming his expected numbers, converting half-chances and leading Osasuna’s attack. He is responsible for 43% of their total goals, so expect him to be heavily involved.
- Gorka Guruzeta (Athletic Bilbao): Athletic’s main striker and first goalscorer market leader. His output is under the radar given the team’s poor finishing, but his movement and shot volume mean he’s always a threat, especially at home.
- Nico Williams (Athletic Bilbao): A key outlet on the wing, Williams’ dribbling and creativity can unlock Osasuna’s defence, particularly as neither side excels at controlling possession (both average near 50%).
- Moi Gómez (Osasuna): An underrated playmaker, Gómez is often the link between midfield and attack, and his delivery from set pieces could be a factor.
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
Recent history favours Athletic Bilbao, who are unbeaten in five of their last six clashes with Osasuna. Draws are a common outcome when these sides meet.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 03/01/26 | Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Bilbao | La Liga |
| 30/03/25 | Athletic Bilbao 0-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| 21/12/24 | Osasuna 1-2 Athletic Bilbao | La Liga |
| 11/05/24 | Athletic Bilbao 2-2 Osasuna | La Liga |
| 19/08/23 | Osasuna 0-2 Athletic Bilbao | La Liga |
| 25/05/23 | Osasuna 2-0 Athletic Bilbao | La Liga |
Will Athletic finally convert their chances?
Despite their struggles in front of goal, Athletic Bilbao’s underlying numbers suggest they’re creating more than they’re finishing. With Gorka Guruzeta leading the line and Osasuna’s defence far from unbeatable, this could be the match where the Basques make their chances count. However, Osasuna’s clinical edge in the final third – particularly through Budimir – makes both teams to score 20/21 @ Bet365 (51.2%) our standout selection for this clash.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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