Separated by just three points and two places in the table, Alaves and Girona lock horns at Mendizorroza on Monday, 23 February, with both sides looking to steady inconsistent La Liga campaigns. Girona have edged the head-to-head in recent years, but Alaves’ underlying numbers suggest they could be due a turnaround. Kick-off is set for 20:00 and the drama is matched only by the lack of margin for error for either side.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on recent form, attacking efficiency, and head-to-head trends, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in the ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ market due to both sides underwhelming in attack and the tendency for this fixture to remain cagey.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It | Alaves to Win | 13/10 @ Bet365 (43.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Alaves’ xG is nearly 10 higher than their actual goals, hinting they’re due better fortune. Girona’s leaky defence (38 conceded) and high red card tally (7 in 24) leave them vulnerable, especially away from home. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score: No | 8/11 @ Bet365 (57.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Only 43% of Alaves’ games and 46% of Girona’s have seen both sides score this season, underlining how often at least one team blanks. The lack of prolific finishers increases the value at this price. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Alaves vs Girona odds
Season Form & Standings
2025/26 season to date: Both teams have struggled for consistency, with Girona sitting 12th on 29 points and Alaves in 14th with 26 points after 24 rounds. Defensive frailties have dogged Girona (38 goals conceded), while Alaves’ lack of finishing has meant their expected goals total far outpaces their actual tally. Neither side has won more than 29% of their games this term.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona | 12 | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 29 |
| Alaves | 14 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 30 | -8 | 26 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Lucas Boyé (Alaves): Leads Alaves’ line, averaging 2.1 shots per game and is overdue based on xG underperformance.
- Vladyslav Vanat (Girona): The most likely scorer for the visitors, with seven goals to his name so far this term and an assist against Barcelona in his last game
- Abderrahmane Rebbach (Alaves): Brings directness, 1.6 key passes per 90, and will be tasked with unlocking Girona’s defence.
- Arnau Martinez (Girona): A defensive lynchpin for Girona with 2.1 tackles and 1.3 interceptions per 90 minutes to his name in La Liga so far this term.
Head-to-Head
Last 6 Meetings
Girona have edged the last six encounters (three wins to Alaves’ two, one draw), but most matches have been tightly contested, with three decided by a single goal or less.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 08/11/25 | Girona 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| 05/04/25 | Girona 0-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| 11/01/25 | Alaves 0-1 Girona | La Liga |
| 10/05/24 | Alaves 2-2 Girona | La Liga |
| 18/12/23 | Girona 3-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| 18/05/19 | Alaves 2-1 Girona | La Liga |
Conclusion
Despite sitting lower in the table, Alaves’ underlying numbers suggest they are due some positive regression, having underperformed their xG by nearly 10 goals. Girona’s defensive lapses and disciplinary problems could offer the hosts a real chance to take all three points. With recent meetings low on goals and neither side boasting a prolific attack, the value lies in backing both no on both teams to score and siding with a home win at 13/10 (43.5%) for those seeking bigger rewards.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.