Two heavyweights open the Nations League in Group A1 as Italy host Belgium at the Stadio Olimpico on Friday, both under new management and both smarting from a difficult year, Italy having missed the World Cup and Belgium bowing out at the quarter-finals.
Anthony Eadson’s Italy vs Belgium predictions, best bets and score prediction are below.
Premium Tips
Anthony Eadson expects a tight, even opener.
| Premium Tip | Odds | Why we’re backing it |
|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 19/20 (William Hill) | Both sides start under new head coaches, with Roberto Mancini back in charge of Italy and Mark van Bommel taking his first game for Belgium, and first competitive games in a new era are often cautious. Belgium drew 0-0 with Iran and 1-1 with Egypt at the World Cup, while Italy have not played a competitive game since the March play-off. At 19/20 with William Hill, an implied probability of 51%, a low-scoring opener appeals. |
| Draw | 12/5 (William Hill) | Two sides in transition meeting in their first competitive game under new bosses often cancel each other out, and this fixture has a habit of being tight, with a 2-2 and a 1-0 in the last two meetings. Italy have not played competitively since March and Belgium are still bedding in Mark van Bommel’s ideas. At 12/5, an implied probability of 29%, a cagey contest that finishes level is a generous price. |
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How Italy go into the game
Italy endured a chastening year, missing a third straight World Cup after losing a play-off shoot-out to Bosnia, and were beaten 4-1 at home by Norway in qualifying. Roberto Mancini returns for a second spell tasked with rebuilding.
Solid against weaker opponents but exposed by the better sides, Italy have not played a competitive game since March.
How Belgium go into the game
Belgium reached the World Cup quarter-finals in the summer, thrashing New Zealand 5-1 and beating the USA 4-1 before losing narrowly to eventual winners Spain. They scored freely but leaked goals along the way.
Now under Mark van Bommel, who replaced Rudi Garcia after the World Cup, Belgium face their first competitive test since that quarter-final defeat, and their defence remains the concern.
Italy vs Belgium head-to-head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/24 | Belgium | 0-1 | Italy |
| 10/10/24 | Italy | 2-2 | Belgium |
| 10/10/21 | Italy | 2-1 | Belgium |
| 02/07/21 | Belgium | 1-2 | Italy |
| 13/06/16 | Belgium | 0-2 | Italy |
Italy have the recent edge, unbeaten in the last five meetings with four wins and a draw, including a 2-1 win in the Euro 2020 quarter-final. They also won 1-0 in Brussels when the sides last met, in the Nations League in November 2024.
Italy vs Belgium predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 12/5 (William Hill) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Two rebuilding sides in their first game under new bosses. |
| Under 2.5 goals | 19/20 (William Hill) | ⭐⭐ | Cagey openers between cautious sides often stay tight. |
| Both teams to score | 4/6 (William Hill) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Both attacks are capable and both defences look shaky. |
| Italy 1-1 Belgium | 11/2 (William Hill) | ⭐⭐ | Our call: honours even in Rome. |
| Draw at half-time | 5/4 (William Hill) | ⭐⭐ | Two cautious sides often go in level at the break. |
Italy vs Belgium score prediction
Two rebuilding sides meeting in their first competitive game under new managers points to a cagey, evenly matched affair, and with Italy hard to beat at home a score draw looks the likeliest outcome. Score prediction: Italy 1-1 Belgium.
