Wales haven’t won in six games overall but can still take some positives from their performances.
Things haven’t looked to good in Wales as of late. Not only are they winless over their last six matches, including friendlies, and Uefa Nations League, but the run actually started with them losing to Bosnia-Herzegovina in the World Cup play-off semi finals.
It was in the first international break after the November one, in which they beat Lichtenstein away 1-0 and thrashed North Macedonia 7-1 in Cardiff.
However, everything took a turn for the worse since then. The Dragons haven’t recovered from the heavy blow on missing out on the 2026 World Cup after competing in the 2022 edition. They would have appeared in consecutive World Cups for the first time in history.
Why shouldn’t Wales be discouraged by recent run?
Performances > results
Wales may be winless over their last six, but they could argue they should have won a few of those games. Or at least drawn some that they ended up losing.
The narrow loss to Portugal was a prime example. They went to Lisbon and were unlucky not to take a point home despite the hosts’ statistical dominance.
Jorge Jesus’ men outshot Wales 23-5 and had 62% possession – as expected given the difference in quality. And yet, the Dragons had three clear-cut goalscoring opportunities, all in the same sequence. Somehow, Brennan Johnson (0.18 Expected Goals), Lewis Koumas (0.45 xG) and Dan James (0.56 xG) all missed.
Not to mention that Joao Felix’s goal could have been easily avoidable. But they showed this same lack of pressure on whoever had the ball in other moments of the game, allowing Portuguese players to take shots way too comfortably.
Bellamy made a lot of changes in the Denmark game, which certainly didn’t help. But even then, and being clearly outplayed in Copenhagen, they still could have gone back home with something.
It took a Ben Davies own goal and a deflected Gustav Isaksen strike to beat them. And Wales still had more big chances – though they fell at the wrong feet. Right-back Connor Roberts missed both, one worth 0.18 xG in the 43rd minute and one worth 0.11 xG in the 75th minute.
The Dragons also had more big chances than Romania and Ghana during the June friendlies just before the World Cup.
| Opponent | Big chances for | Big chances against | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark | 2 | 1 | 0-2 |
| Portugal | 3 | 1 | 0-1 |
| Romania | 2 | 1 | 1-2 |
| Ghana | 5 | 4 | 1-1 |
Harry Wilson’s absence
Harry Wilson basically backpacked Wales to the World Cup play-off semi finals, with five goals and two assists in six games. It was similar to what Gareth Bale did in 2022 – though unfortunately with a different outcome.
He hasn’t represented his country since that March international break, in which they lost to Bosnia on penalties and then drew with Northern Ireland in a friendly. The 29-year-old is currently out with a quad injury.
Not only do they very obviously miss his goals and assists, plus ball-striking abilities, set-piece deliveries and overall work rate, but Craig Bellamy doesn’t have another polished enough player to fit the number 10 role.
Wilson is not a No.10 himself, but is the most skilled and technical option they have to deploy in this position. Brennan Johnson, David Brooks and Nathan Broadhead are all more used to playing out wide and have a hard time figuring things out down the middle. Jordan James is a valid shout but excels arriving from deeper positions to crash the box and finish.
It’s already a highly important position, but even more so for Wales who centre their game around Wilson. Not having him provides the Dragons a huge blow every time they enter the pitch.
Of course, the pressure Bellamy is currently facing — plus the worries regarding the Burnley saga over the summer — may be too much for him to see things through.
But Wales aren’t far off from being competitive again in terms of results. It’s definitely not perfect, but the recent form doesn’t tell the whole story regarding Bellamy’s management skills. Just highlights the shortcomings of the squad, especially when taking out the best player in the team.