The Championship table might make it look like Sheffield United are far away from contending for the play-offs, but reality is different.
The Blades are currently in 15th, which normally would have a team ruled out of a fight for something meaningful in late February.
As we enter the final third of the season, however, things are different this year. Only six points separate 6th-placed Derby County (48) and 16th-placed Swansea City (42). It might be one of the tightest Championship seasons in recent memory.
Even in the automatics, Coventry City’s 10-point lead over Middlesbrough disappeared and Boro actually went top for a few days. Of course, Frank Lampard’s men would beat Kim Hellberg’s side to reclaim the 1st place.
Ipswich Town still have two games in hand and six points there would thrust them into the title race, two points off Coventry and one off Middlesbrough.
And with every team from 6th to 16th except for Southampton and Birmingham City having lost at least one of their last three games, we can expect things to shift and teams to switch positions back and forth until the end of the campaign. And Sheffield United could really benefit from that.
Why are Sheffield United Championship contenders?
Momentum and timing
Sheffield United went to the play-off finals and lost to Sunderland in dramatic fashion on stoppage time last year. The expectation was that they would run away with one of the automatic spots after finishing 3rd with 90 points in 2024-25.
Unfortunately for them, the Ruben Selles experiment went as bad as it could and nearly ruined their season.
Six straight defeats to kick their campaign off and just one win from their first nine matches. Two months and nine matchweeks into the season, they were bottom of the table.
Chris Wilder did manage to turn things around but it took time. He had to not only fix the footballing part but also make the players regain confidence in themselves. Going from 30 minutes away from Premier League football to possibly facing relegation to League One in less than six months can break a squad.
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The Blades’ first good run of results came in a month-long stretch of four straight wins sandwiched by two draws. Since then, they have lost consecutive matches just once.
And now, they would be in a five-game unbeaten streak if it weren’t for Middlesbrough. Both sides put on a show a couple of weeks ago in what was one of the best games of the season. It ended in a Boro 2-1 away win, but there’s an argument to be made that Sheffield United deserved more.
In fact, they were one of the few sides that managed to face Kim Hellberg’s side and create more big chances than them. It happened just four times in the 15 matches the Swede has been at the helm. Coventry City, Hull City and Derby County in his debut were the others.
And not just talking about results, but performances have been solid as well. Considering the rebuild not only of the squad but also the winning mentality, of course. The Portsmouth game last time around was an exception – but an incredible Michael Cooper showing and an Andre Brooks 90th-minute winner did the trick for them.
Now, what should be the easiest Steel City Derby awaits them next Monday.
Best 15th-placed side ever?
Sheffield United may be 15th in real life, but the ‘justice table’ shows a different picture. Opta’s expected points model has the Blades nine positions up, with 50 xP in 6th rather than the 42 they’ve won so far. It’s also the sixth worth differential of any side in the league.
Looking up, they are clearly better than a few different sides – in theory. Preston North End, Bristol City, Stoke City, Watford and Queens Park Rangers all started MD33 ahead of them but playing much worse recently.
A few negative results from their peers would have United jump up in the table. There are still 14 games to go and time and momentum are both on their side.
The fact that they are so far down with more losses (16) than wins (13) and still have a neutral goal difference (0) shows that. And things are likely to change for the better when they host Sheffield Wednesday at Bramall Lane in two days.
There’s also an extra incentive for Chris Wilder’s men in the derby. Not only can they maintain their good recent form and possibly cut the gap to a few teams ahead of them, it’s the chance to officially relegate their main rivals.
A loss would mathematically guarantee Wednesday play League One football next season. It’s already going to happen anyway, but to be the responsible for that would be a great feeling for the Blades and their fans.
Attacking threat
This hasn’t been the typical or expected campaign for Sheffield United in the Championship. Like most Chris Wilder-led sides, they don’t care too much for having possession, pushing opponents back with territorial dominace or patient build-up.
But their defence has been more exposed than one would expect – even after Wilder’s return. They are still very much hard workers and grifters, allowing just 10.9 passes per defensive action, which is the fewest in the league. In return, however, they do leave spaces between the lines quite often.
The Blades head into MD33 with the fifth worst defence in the division (45 goals conceded). They also don’t do a great job protecting their goalkeeper. 69% of their shots faced have come inside their own box, which is the third highest percentage of any team.
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Michael Cooper hasn’t been the same as last season, when he was possibly the best goalkeeper in the Championship. But he has picked up in form recently, making crucial saves to keep the team alive in important games – such as against Portsmouth, Middlesbrough and Ipswich.
But they have been much better going forward. Which is ironic considering they’ve suffered from the lack of a number nine for quite some time.
Their scoring hasn’t exactly been off the charts, but they create enough to get much more. Sheffield United rank fourth in expected goals per game according to Opta data (1.6 xG compared to 1.4 goals scored).
They are also second in expected goals per shot taken (0.120, behind only Southampton’s 0.121).
Midfielder Callum O’Hare has had to carry the attacking load, leading them in goals (8 in 32 matches). But Patrick Bamford has been a hit since signing on a free in November (7 in 15 matches).
Set pieces have also played a big part in their attack. United are second only to leaders Coventry in goals (0.5) and shots (5.2) per game from set pieces this season. In fact, 39% of their attempts have come in dead ball situations – the most of any side.
It would be an incredible in-season turnaround if the Blades make it to the play-offs. It’s not the most favourable situation in the world, but still very much a real possibility.