Manchester City have won one and lost two in the start of the new Premier League season and things aren’t looking good for Pep Guardiola.
This has actually been their worst start to a campaign in over 20 years. The Citizens have picked up just three points from their opening three matches, the lowest since 2004-05. That year, Kevin Keegan was in charge and led them to one draw and two losses to start the season.
It looked like it was going to be easier when they earned a dominant and deserved win over Wolves on opening day. Man City smashed them 4-0 and it could’ve been more.
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However, things did not go to plan in the following two games. Thomas Frank and Tottenham executed a perfect game plan to come out of the Etihad with three points, while the Citizens themselves left the door open for Brighton to snatch a late 2-1 win last weekend.
Guardiola himself said the team is going through a sort of adaptation period and that once it clicks, they will start winning again. But in the meantime, here are a few observation points on what has gone wrong so far this season.
Defensive fragility
Manchester City have lacked top-end defensive talent since Pep took over in 2016, but always made up by protecting themselves in possession.
For a while now, things haven’t quite been the same. The Citizens have allowed their opponents six clear-cut opportunities in the Premier League so far. Three for Brighton and Hove Albion and three for Tottenham, following a safe display against Wolves.
This is actually a better average per game (2.0) than what they had last season (2.4). Still, Guardiola would likely want that number down even more.
They are also conceding 1.3 expected goals per game in the start of the current campaign, the same as the last one – which is not a good recipe, considering how things went for them last year.
As if all of this wasn’t enough, Man City have also been losing possession in dangerous areas more often than in any other season under the Spanish tactician. An incredibly high average of 9.7 high turnovers allowed per game so far. Most notably, Joao Palhinha’s goal for Tottenham that was gift-wrapped by James Trafford inside their own box.
Uncoordinated press
Some of the Citizens’ defensive issues can actually be traced back to their activity up front. Seemingly every time they try to press high up the pitch, the opponent can find a way around it.
Tottenham’s opening goal at the Etihad actually came after a build-up in which they had numerical disadvantage in their own half. Man City had a 5-on-4 scenario when Pedro Porro received the ball near the touchline.
And yet, they got exactly what they wanted when the right-back launched it for Pape Sarr to flick it on towards Richarlison in space. That’s inexcusable – especially in a wide area.
The same happened against Brighton, again out wide. This time though, it was actually a second ball that hurt them. City had seven players in the attacking half and their three defenders in a very high line, while Fabian Hurzeler placed four of his forwards spread out across the whole width of the pitch to outnumber them.
When the Seagulls recovered possession, they had a a 4-on-3 fast break already lined up to execute – and did so perfectly, since it ended in the winning goal after nice work from Brajan Gruda.
If Man City really want to commit that many bodies to be present in the attacking half, they have to go all in. Otherwise, it would be better to sit back a little more in order to have enough players to defend long balls and counter-attacks.
Conversion
While Man City have struggled defensively, offensively things have come quite easy for them. The team creates a lot of good chances, ranking second in the Premier League in clear-cut goalscoring opportunities (8), third in touches in the opponent’s box (86) and fourth in expected goals (5.8 xG).
However, they have lacked the finishing touch. Their 25% big chance conversion rate is the third worst in the league, ahead only of Aston Villa (0%) and Bournemouth (14%). The Citizens have also missed six big chances so far, with only the Cherries having wasted more opportunities (7).
Erling Haaland and Omar Marmoush have both underperformed their expected goals tallies this season (-0.86 and -0.82, respectively).
To make matters worse, the Norwegian striker has actually had his highest expected goals per shot ratio of any season in the Premier League so far. His average shot in 2025-26 is worth 0.28 xG, compared to 0.20 in 2024-25, 0.24 in 2023-24 and 0.23 in 2022-23.
There is still plenty of time – and now a full international break – for Pep Guardiola to try and turn things around. At least he is confident that the wins will come eventually, insisting that they just need time for everything to click – from technical staff to new signings.