Oli McBurnie saved Hull City’s season by sending them to the play-offs on final day. But he offers a lot more to their team than just goals.
The Tigers are set to feature in the 2025-26 Championship play-offs after barely avoiding relegation last season.
Sergej Jakirovic’s men spent most of the campaign in the top-six, but lost momentum towards the end. They went into the final day winless in six games and even fell behind to Norwich City.
But thanks to a Oli McBurnie-led comeback and both Wrexham and Derby County failing to win their matches, they managed to get back into the play-off spots.
While Joe Gelhardt is arguably their most technical player and the top difference-maker this season, he faded along with the team. The Leeds United loanee has scored just one goal in his last nine league appearances.
McBurnie, however, has mostly stayed consistent throughout the campaign. He peaked in the earlier stages, with six goals and three assists in the first nine games. But he only spent more than three games without scoring or assisting one time (five between February and March).
A few months ago, we wrote about how Hull were overachieving this year. And despite being underdogs, clearly a level below Millwall, Southampton and Middlesbrough, there is no reason why they shouldn’t dream big. But they will need their main man at the top of his game for it all to come true.
- READ MORE: Hull City tactical analysis: How chaotic Tigers have been overachieving in the Championship
How can Oli McBurnie’s impact help Hull City in the play-offs?
Scoring
Oli McBurnie has done a lot more than just scoring goals for Hull City in the Championship this season. But he has done too much of that for us to not go through this part.
He finished the campaign as the joint-second leading scorer in the division, with 17 goals – the same as Coventry’s Haji Wright. Only Swansea’s Zan Vipotnik found the net more times (23).
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The Scotsman also overperformed his expected goals tally (12.1 xG) by 4.9. Of the 19 players that had 20+ clear-cut goalscoring opportunities, he had the outright best conversion rate (55% – 11/20). And the only other one above 50% was Vipotnik (54% – 14/26).
McBurnie did a good job placing his finishes as well, which indicates that his xG overperformance could be sustainable going forward. He turned the 12.1 xG he generated at the moment of taking his shots into 15.4 xGOT, post-shot. The +3.3 uptick was the fourth highest in the division – and the highest of any striker.
Creativity
While McBurnie is not a technical type of player, not even in his role as a striker, he is still useful getting teammates involved.
His 7 assists were the second most of any striker this season, behind only Preston’s Lewis Dobbin. He also ranked fourth in chances created for his position (39).
Most of them were lay-offs either with his head or feet, or finding runners behind him with quick, simple backward passes. For perspective, only left-back Ryan Giles (8) created more goals for Hull than him.
His assists also took him to second in the ranking of goal involvements (24 – 17 goals, 7 assists). Vipotnik was once again ahead of him – though the Slovakian provided just three assists.
Duels
This might be the true nature of McBurnie’s game. He likes to get stuck in and battle it out with opposing defenders. In fact, Jay Stansfield (10) was the only striker to receive more bookings than the Hull No.9 (8).
At 6′ 2”, he is a massive aerial threat despite having only scored two headed goals. His imposition in the air is crucial to getting the Tigers into their attacking plays in the opponent’s half.
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And it’s a common sight as well, considering they average under 46% possession and are used to having other teams go at them. McBurnie is hugely important to getting their favoured transitions started.
The 29-year-old ranked fourth among all Championship players in duels contested (584). In the air, only Portsmouth’s Colby Bishop and Millwall’s Mihailo Ivanovic contested more duels than him (366).
These traits also benefit Hull defensively. McBurnie led all forwards in clearances this campaign, with 84 – the next closest was Leicester’s Abdul Fatawu with 62. For perspective, the gap from him to second-placed Fatawu was as large as the one between Fatawu and 19th-placed Carlton Morris.
In terms of headed clearances, his 71 topped the list as well, with Wrexham’s Kieffer Moore in second with 53.
Hull are outsiders and have been the whole year, so this position is nothing new for them. And they are going to need everything McBurnie has in order for them to have any sort of success in the play-offs.
Millwall are the most aerially imposing side in the league defensively, having won 63% of the aerial duels in their own third – the highest percentage of any team. It will be a fun battle – though probably not the most aesthetically pleasing.