Everton have struggled mightily going forward this season, but somehow find themselves in the mix for European football early on.
The Toffees are currently 9th in the Premier League table with 21 points. Many of the teams ahead will still play this Wednesday, but the fact that they are just three points behind fourth-placed Aston Villa is a great sign.
Consider how much they have lacked goals from Beto and Thierno Barry, and this feat gets even more impressive. Let’s dive in.
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Striker problem
Everton have a striker problem, that’s no surprise. Beto (-3.3) and Barry (-3.4) are both among the top-4 expected goals underperformers this season.
The Toffees have had 26 clear-cut goalscoring opportunities and basically half of them went to the towering target men. They have combined to score one out of 12.
David Moyes has a clear plan and it consists in getting them fighting for headers inside the box. It’s a valid formula, but there is a downside to it. Headers in general aren’t the most reliable type of shot. Crosses can be very dangerous, but heading the ball is a difficult task – no matter how specialized a striker is in this department.
And both of them still have a big role in Everton’s attack. Barry’s best game this season, for instance, was one in he didn’t come close to having a shot attempt, against Manchester United. But he was crucial to holding the ball, bringint teammates into plays and getting his side in the attacking half.
Back to Everton as a team, it helps that they rank ninth in expected goals (20.0) and 11th in big chance total (26). There is still a margin for them to score – they are also fifth in xG per shot attempt, so when do take shots, they’re usually dangerous.
Had the Toffees created less so far in the league, maybe they would be in a much worse position. The problem is that they can’t score, seeing as only three teams have found the net fewer times than them.
Defence trending up
While Moyes’ men struggle going forward, they are better at the back. Everton rank eigth in goals conceded (17). But this number in itself doesn’t tell the whole story.
They have conceded the third most big chances (35), the fourth most shots (187) and expected goals (21.9) this season.
And yet, the Toffees have forced the sixth worst expected goals underperformance by their opponents. Jordan Pickford plays a big role in this, ranking fifth among all Premier League goalkeepers in goals prevented in 2025-26 (+2.6).
However, things have looked safer as of late. They recorded three clean sheets in their last four games – more than in the previous 10 since the start of the campaign (2). Everton jumped from 14th to 9th in the table in this period – though Crystal Palace and Brentford can leapfrog them today.
Comfort in being under attack
David Moyes has had the same footballing ideas for a long time and they didn’t change much when he returned to Goodison Park.
In this recent stretch – three wins out of four and each of them with a clean sheet -, they have still been mostly under attack. Considering the last four Premier League matchweeks, the Toffees have faced the third most shots (51).
On the other hand, they have conceded the second fewest expected goals per shot faced in this span (0.09) – despite allowing the second most touches inside their own box (125).
As usual, a Moyes-led team finds comfort sitting deep and seeing opponents charge forward against them.
Everton have operated mainly in runs this season. The current one has seen them pick up nine points out of 12 available and get closer to the top four. They may finish the matchweek sitting 11th in the table, but still very much in the mix to fight for European competitions.
And who knows what could happen if the Toffees maintain the current form and sign a more reliable striker in the January transfer window.