The trio look to have gone ahead of everyone else and have arrived at a critical point in the season trying to survive multiple competitions.
The Brazilian Serie A has always been one of the most unpredictable and balanced leagues in the world. While in England there’s a ‘Big Six’, in Brazil there’s a thing called ‘Big Twelve’.
And despite Palmeiras and Flamengo having distanced themselves from the rest over the past five years or so, they’re booked to face a rival or at least a fellow ‘big’ club every other matchweek.
After a slow start to the season – and having played in Serie B between 2020 and 2022 -, Cruzeiro have joined the duo – though they’re not quite up there in the league table.
| Games played | Wins | Draws | Losses | Goals scored | Goals conceded | Points won | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 26 | 61 |
| Flamengo | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 56 | 16 | 61 |
| Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42 | 21 | 56 |
| Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52 | 31 | 55 |
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Palmeiras
The Verdao have won two of the last two league titles in Brazil and chased Botafogo until the end in 2024, ultimately falling short.
They have the longest-tenured manager in the country across the top four tiers, deadly set pieces and a knack for overcoming tricky situations.
Abel Ferreira usually adopts a more cautious and reactive tactical approach, but has developed a respectable propositive game over the years. However, even sitting 1st, things haven’t looked good as of late.
Palmeiras eased their way into the Copa Libertadores semi finals after defeating Argentinian giants River Plate 5-2 on aggregate in the quarter finals. Ecuadorian side LDU Quito came next and upsetted the Brazilians with a 3-0 home win in the first leg last Thursday.
Now, they host Cruzeiro this Sunday having already lost to Flamengo last time around in the league.
Abel Ferreira will have a tough decision to make either trying to balance responsibilities across the Serie A and the Libertadores or prepare his team for the continental semifinals second leg at risk of dropping to 2nd and seeing the 3rd-placed Foxes get even closer.
Key stats (per game):
- 52.5% possession (Ranked #7)
- 1.9 goals scored (Ranked #2)
- 0.9 goals conceded (Ranked #4)
- 15.0 shot attempts (Ranked #2)
- 9.7 shots faced (Ranked #2)
- 2.7 big chances (Ranked #1)
- 1.3 big chances conceded (Ranked #T-1)
- 1.6 xG (Ranked #2)
- 25.4 xGA (Ranked #2)
Flamengo
Flamengo are the richest club in Brazil and also own the largest fan base. They’re penciled in to compete for basically any regional, national or continental tournament there is.
Many thought this could be the case at an international level as well early on in the Fifa Club World Cup when they defeated Chelsea 3-1 in the group stage. The Rubro-Negro ultimately lost to Bayern in the round of 16 but still put in a good performance.
Everything suggests they should be running away with the league title this season. Flamengo have conceded just 15 goals in 28 games so far, and scored more than any other side (56). They have a larger goal difference (+41) than 15 teams have scored overall.
They’re also the only team to have found the net five or more times in multiple league games in 2025 (3), even setting a modern-era record-breaking 8-0 win vs Vitória two months ago. Manager Filipe Luis has won nearly 75% of the points across all competitions since taking over as manager in September 2024.
And yet, they’re in the mix – and had all momentum to their side with three consecutive wins, including one vs Palmeiras, derby delight vs Botafogo and going ahead 1-0 on aggregate in the Libertadores semifinals vs Racing. However, they lost to 18th-placed Fortaleza last time around and failed to go top of the league momentarily.
Flamengo’s league schedule is also relatively light until the end of the season. They’ll face 20th-placed Sport twice, plus struggling São Paulo, Santos and Red Bul Bragantino sides. This makes up for five of their last nine games until the curtains fall.
Filipe Luís has the Rubro-Negro playing an aggressive, ball-dominant style of play that looks to suffocate the opposition inside their own half. They are top-3 in most offensive metrics while also looking completely safe at the back. The perfect balance.
To top it all off, Giorgian De Arrascaeta has been, far and away, the best player this season. He reached double digits on both goals and assists on Matchday 21 (out of 38), leading the league in both categories (15G 12A).
At 31 years of age, he might have missed out on his shot at European football, while also delivering underwhelming performances against top-tier opposition in the Club World Cup. But in Brazil, the Uruguayan is as good a player as any.
Key stats (per game):
- 60.9% possession (Ranked #1)
- 2.0 goals scored (Ranked #1)
- 0.5 goals conceded (Ranked #1)
- 14.3 shot attempts (Ranked #3)
- 9.7 shots faced (Ranked #1)
- 2.6 big chances (Ranked #2)
- 1.3 big chances conceded (Ranked #T-1)
- 1.6 xG (Ranked #3)
- 0.8 xGA (Ranked #1)
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro had an incredible run of form that saw them go unbeaten in 16 games across three months, between April and July.
That caught the attention of the worldwide football fans when Flamengo and Palmeiras were advancing in the CWC, seeing as both had lost to Cruzeiro before.
Their performances and results have dropped a little in recent weeks, with only one win in their last five matches. Still, it’s also just one loss in their last 12 games across all competitions. This span includes a 4-0 aggregate win against fierce rivals Atletico Mineiro in the Brazilian Cup quarter finals.
Leonardo Jardim – famous for winning the 2016/17 Ligue 1 with As Monaco – has turned Cruzeiro into a fast break machine. Not only do they feel comfortable without possession, sometimes it feels like they don’t want to have the ball.
They rank first in total fast breaks (49), shots taken (42) and goals scored (8) from those situations. Unlike Flamengo and Palmeiras, their numbers aren’t as balanced and there is a clear focus on the defensive side, which is their main strength.
Going forward, ‘streets won’t forget’ and West Bromwich Albion fan-favourite Matheus Pereira is their No.10 and takes on most of the creative burden. Former Juventus striker Kaio Jorge benefits from that, leading the Brazilian Serie A with 15 goals scored, the same as Flamengo’s Giorgian De Arrascaeta.
Both have also dished out seven assists this season, second only to Arrascaeta (12).
The Raposa’s schedule is not the heaviest from here on out, but they have lost relatively easy points against weak opponents recently. And despite being alive in the Brazilian Cup, the semifinals will only start after the league season ends.
So they benefit from only playing in the Serie A, while Flamengo and Palmeiras fight for a spot to face each other in the Libertadores final. Could be a valuable advantage as they went back to winning ways last time around against Fortaleza, who look set for relegation.
Key stats (per game):
- 47.2% possession (Ranked #15)
- 1.4 goals scored (Ranked #5)
- 0.7 goals conceded (Ranked #2)
- 13.9 shot attempts (Ranked #4)
- 13.1shots faced (Ranked #13)
- 2.2 big chances (Ranked #7)
- 1.3 big chances conceded (Ranked #3)
- 1.3 xG (Ranked #5)
- 0.9 xGA (Ranked #3)
Newcomers Mirassol are also enjoying the second-best ever season from a newly promoted side just one point behind Cruzeiro, though they have played 30 games. If the three teams above them start slipping, they will be there from the outside looking in trying to get in the mix as well.