Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins has struggled to hit the heights expected of him this season, but he’s coming into form at a perfect time.
Despite some disappointing results over the last few months, Villa are still in contention to qualify for the Champions League. Unai Emery’s side also have a strong chance of delivering silverware and could end the season with their hands on the Europa League trophy.
Securing Champions League football for next season will likely be the main aim for the Villa owners, and that can be achieved through league position or winning the Europa League.
Watkins has endured a difficult time for the Midlands club this term, but he’s started to pick up form once again.
In this article, we’ll cover
Watkins’ struggles this season
Watkins is a natural-born goalscorer, and has proven so during his time in the Premier League. Create chances for him, and he will score them, but he has underperformed his xG this season by 1.9.
It’s not a disastrous underperformance, but an underperformance nonetheless. That differs from last season, where he overperformed by 1.24 xG in the league, showing one of the areas he’s struggled in this term.
Per 90 minutes, Watkins’ goals have dropped from 0.55 to 0.34, while he’s also struggled from a creativity perspective. Watkins’ xA has dropped from 0.14 per 90 minutes to 0.08, registering just one assist all season.
Watkins not solely to blame
Watkins will certainly be one of his own biggest critics, and there’s no doubt he could have contributed more this season. The England international hit 24 goals and assists combined in the Premier League last season, and he’s on course to get nowhere near those levels this term.
Age catches up with every player, and it may simply be the case that Watkins is starting to decline after entering his thirties. In reality, he might not be the only one to blame.
Aston Villa have created just 45.1 xG this season, the eighth lowest in the Premier League. In reality, they are quite fortunate to have scored the number of goals they have, with creativity being an issue for them this term.
Watkins is the type of player who thrives on multiple chances, getting into the box as much as possible to try and find the back of the net. He might miss three or four, but he’ll score the fifth. Villa haven’t been able to create as much as Watkins would have hoped.
Watkins coming into form
Despite his difficulties this season, Watkins has started to turn things around over the last few weeks. In all competitions, Watkins has scored four times in his last four games, including three crucial goals in the Europa League.
It’s an ideal time for Watkins to come into form, with Villa competing on multiple, important fronts. During those four games, Villa have created, on average, 1.66 xG, an increase on their average throughout the season.
If Villa are going to lift silverware and finish in the top five, Watkins is going to be imperative. Emery brought in Tammy Abraham to provide cover and competition in the January transfer window, but he’s scored just twice since his move to Villa Park.
Getting Watkins as close to the goal as possible to get on the end of chances has been key for Villa. Watkins is a poacher, a goalscorer, a finisher. He’s more than capable of being involved in deeper areas, linking up play, but you need to get him in the penalty area and create for him.
It’s an important few weeks for Aston Villa, and as they sit in fourth position, while also being in the semi-final of the Europa League, it could be an exciting end to the season for their supporters.
Watkins back in England contention
Thomas Tuchel has some difficult decisions to make in the coming months as he prepares to take England to the World Cup. Harry Kane will, undoubtedly, be the starting striker, but Tuchel needs to decide who is going to play second fiddle.
The England manager doesn’t have a plethora of options to choose from. There are plenty out there, but not many of them are shoo-ins to make the squad due to their form.
Watkins failed to make the last England squad for friendlies against Uruguay and Japan back in March, which is a crucial blow ahead of the World Cup. Tuchel opted for Dominic Solanke ahead of him, but the Tottenham forward has struggled even more than Watkins this term.
The Villa man’s form since Tuchel’s snub will have undoubtedly given him something to think about. If Watkins stays amongst the goals during the final weeks of the season, there’s every chance he overtakes Solanke in the pecking order.
Watkins already has that tournament experience with England, so he’ll be hoping Tuchel takes that into consideration when selecting his squad.