Huddersfield Town and Nottingham Forest meet at Wembley Stadium on Sunday to fight for a place in the Premier League, as the Championship Play Off final takes centre stage.
Huddersfield are looking to make quick return to England’s top flight following their relegation in the 2018/19 season, while the wait has been far longer for Nottingham Forest.
Forest were one of the founding teams of the Premier League but have not featured in the top division since their relegation in the 1996/97 season.
Huddersfield finished the season third in the league, two points ahead of Forest in fourth. With so little between the teams across the season, how can we formulate intelligent predictions for this one? Statistical data, our friends!
We look back at the 2021/22 campaign, and trawl the archives too, to provide you with some insight into the most popular Championship Play Off final betting markets…
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How many corners does a match have?
The average number of corners in a Championship match this season is 8.8 per game.
Across the 2021/22 season, Huddersfield won on average 4.5 corners per game, while Nottingham Forest averaged 5.54.
Combined, this theoretically generates a rough guide of 10.04 per game for this weekend’s final. That figure tallies with how their two meetings played out during the season, with 11 and 8 corners in those matches respectively.
Championship Play Off final corners prediction
Historical data for this Championship Play Off final (which goes back to 2004) generates an average of 10.1 corners per game.
Our prediction: 10 or 11 corners (10/3 with Sky Bet)
Championship Play Off final cards prediction
Across the 552 regular season matches played in the Championship this year there has been an average of 3.6 yellow cards per game. Historically (since the 1996/97 season) the Championship Play Off final averages slightly more than this at 3.8 yellow cards per game.
So far this season (regular Championship and Play Off matches) Huddersfield have averaged 1.54 yellow cards per game, with Nottingham Forest coming in slightly higher at 1.88.
Red cards are naturally less frequent, with Championship matches averaging 0.12 per game. Interestingly (again, since the 1996/97 season) the Championship Play Off final averages the exact same figure.
Nottingham Forest have had three players sent off in the regular Championship season. Huddersfield, however, are yet to pick up a red card.
Who is the Championship Play Off final referee?
The Championship Play Off final referee is Jonathan Moss, in what will be his final-ever match in charge.
In the 28 matches Moss has officiated this season, he has averaged 2.32 yellow cards per game and 0.14 red cards per game.
Our prediction: -30 booking points (3/1 with Sky Bet)
How do booking points work?
Booking points work on a simple scoring system of 10 points per yellow card, 25 points for a red card. It’s worth noting though that should a player be sent off for two bookable offences the score tally would be 35 (10 + 25) and not 10 + 10 + 25 = 45.
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Championship Play Off final total goals (under/over goals) prediction
Huddersfield have averaged 1.43 goals per game in the Championship this season (regular season and play-off matches), with Forest averaging slightly higher with 1.58 goals per game.
Their two regular season match-ups generated five goals, with Forest winning 2-0 and 2-1. This creates an average of 2.5 goals per game for the fixture this season.
The under/over goals market only counts for the opening 90 minutes of a match, and excludes extra-time and penalties. Since the 1989-90 season, the Championship Play Off final averages 2.3 goals per game in normal time. Interestingly, in only 34% of those have both sides scored in normal time.
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals (8/13 with Sky Bet)
Championship Play Off final bet builder tips
Our bet builder tip: + 10 corners, -30 booking points, under 2.5 goals, both teams to score (no)
Like many markets, bet builders only apply for 90 minutes, and do not incorporate extra time or penalties.
However, it’s worth noting that 75% of the Championship Play Off finals since the 1989-90 season have been won in normal time.
More Huddersfield v Nottingham Forest Play Off final betting tips betting tips from Squawka Bet
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