Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur meet in the Premier League this weekend, in a game of the utmost importance for both managers.
Michael Carrick and Roberto De Zerbi are joint-favourites to be the first Premier League manager sacked after their poor starts to the season. Man Utd sit 12th after five games with just one win alongside two draws and two defeats.
Tottenham, meanwhile, are bottom of the table with just two points from their opening five matches.
The managers are under pressure and a big result this weekend could see them even more at risk. But who needs the win more?
In this article, we’ll cover
Underperforming expectations
Both Man Utd and Tottenham have underperformed against the expectations from the start of the season. The Red Devils were predicted to finish fourth by a lot of bookmakers, while Spurs were tipped for sixth.
According to Expected Goals, both sides should have at least three more points than they currently do. Man Utd were projected 8.6 points and have just five, while Tottenham’s expected points total was 5.7.
Both sides are third and fourth respectively for possession averages this season. Man Utd are also fourth for their 9.89 xG, although Tottenham are languishing 18th with 5.0 xG. They are also both in the top five for buildups this season, with Man Utd on 25 and Tottenham on 21. Spurs have just struggled more when it comes to creating high-xG chances from these situations.
Defensively, though, they have been lacking. Man Utd have conceded their eight goals from just 6.8 xGC, letting in more than they should have. It’s a similar case for Tottenham — albeit smaller — with eight goals conceded from 7.86 xGC.
Who needs it more?
There’s a case for both managers needing the win more this weekend. For Carrick, the clear expectations for the season are to qualify for the Champions League. Despite it still being early in the campaign, rumours are already starting to build around his future — and any potential replacements. While many were happy with the initial job done by Carrick, he was only an interim at the time.
Man Utd do also have a tough run of fixtures coming up. The face Atletico Madrid and Como in back-to-back weeks in the Champions League, with a trip to fierce rivals Leeds United sandwiched between. And then there’s a tip to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea at the end of the month.
However, with Tottenham still chasing a first win, it feels imperative for De Zerbi’s side to get something from this game.
The Italian took charge in March and helped steer Tottenham from relegation. Although he needed to take the race to the final day, and a bit of a slip from West Ham United. It was the second successive season in which Spurs had finished 17th in the Premier League.
As a result, Tottenham weren’t expected to pull up any trees this season, despite spending over £300million in the summer. But European qualification would have been deemed as a solid first full campaign for De Zerbi. He’s already facing an uphill battle for that.
Tottenham have a mixed run of fixtures after this weekend, even without European football. They face Coventry City, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Leeds United and Ipswich Town across their next five matches.
How will the game go down
We can expect both sides to have a tussle for control at Old Trafford. Man Utd will feel the pressure to perform at home, while Tottenham have the second most-intense press in the Premier League with 8.8 passes per defensive action.
De Zerbi’s plan will be to lure Man Utd out of their defensive shape. He’ll look to bait the press and accelerate play through the thirds to attack the open spaces. This would likely see Bruno Fernandes and Matheus Cunha pressing the two centre-backs, with the two wingers looking to track their full-back.
However, the positioning of both Destiny Udogie and Archie Gray would cause problems for Man Utd’s press. They often look to move into the pockets in more advanced areas, allowing the three midfielders to rotate to occupy full-back zones — overloading the first line.
Man Utd’s press
Carrick often wants his side to retain a +1 on the opposition strike with their two centre-backs. But if Bryan Mbeumo were to pass Udogie on, to press Sandro Tonali, Kobbie Mainoo would have to shuffle across to monitor the full-back. It leaves Rodrigo Bentancur as the spare man in the soft spot of their press.
The Man Utd manager will have to decide how aggressive he wants his side to be in the press, with a centre-back having to step up to occupy the spare player in the pocket in order to retain man-to-man access across the pitch.
It would be feasible for Carrick to therefore defend slightly more passively. Man Utd can still look to build out from the back and control periods of the game when in possession, but allow Tottenham to possess the ball themselves in the middle third for sustained periods. The Red Devils can then hurt Spurs on the break.
Tottenham are likely to continue with their ways, as De Zerbi has a heavy belief in his principles of play. This would likely include an aggressive press, even against Man Utd at Old Trafford. Tottenham will look to lock on man-to-man when they can.
They have often down this by jumping their pres down one flank. For example, the striker would lock on to one centre-back, with the winger on one side jumping up to press the other centre-back. It would start a chain of jumps behind from full-back and same-side centre-back.
Player availability key
This game could also be decided by the availability of Tottenham’s defenders. More specifically, the availability of Micky van de Ven. If the Dutchman were to miss out, Tosin Adarabioyo would likely be left marking Marcus Rashford, a big mismatch.
However, if Van de Ven is available, Tottenham would be able to jump their press down the left instead. The Dutchman could shuffle across and defend Mbeumo in wide areas, something his profile is far better suited to than an Adarabioyo for example.
This fixture feels like it could be decided by the choices of Carrick. Either it is a high-intensity, high-pressing game from both sides which dissolves into a punch-for-punch-type game. Or it is a transition first approach from Man Utd, forcing Tottenham to possess the ball against a more stubborn defensive block and looking to frustrate them and punish them in moments.