Atletico Madrid head to the Estadio de Mendizorroza on Saturday 10 October (3:15pm UK time) to face an Alaves side sitting sixth in La Liga, with Diego Simeone’s men second and five points behind leaders Barcelona after seven games.
Anthony Eadson’s Alaves vs Atletico Madrid predictions, best bets and score prediction are below.
Premium Tips
Anthony Eadson has picked out two Premium Tips for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid, including a 4/1 half-time/full-time selection built on Atletico’s habit of starting slowly.
| Premium Tip | Odds | Why we’re backing it |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid to win and over 2.5 goals | 19/10 (BoyleSports) | Atletico Madrid’s games have been packed with goals. Six straight Atletico league matches have gone over 2.5 goals, and every one of their seven has had at least two. Simeone’s side have lost just one of their seven games and scored in six of them, while their tendency to find their range after the break has repeatedly turned tight games into comfortable ones. Alaves will look to keep it tight at Mendizorroza, but Atletico’s numbers point to a win with goals. At 19/10, an Atletico win in a game with three or more goals is the pick. |
| Half-time/full-time: Draw/Atletico Madrid | 4/1 (Sky Bet) | Simeone’s side have been slow starters this term. Atletico Madrid were level at 0-0 at half-time in five of their seven La Liga games, including the 2-1 win over Real Madrid last time out, and went on to win three of those matches. Alaves have also been hard to break down early on, conceding just one first-half goal in seven league outings. The most recent meeting between these sides followed the same script, with Atletico goalless at the break before winning 1-0 in January. Draw/Atletico Madrid in the half-time/full-time market looks a sensible way to back the visitors at 4/1. |
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How Alaves go into the game
Alaves sit sixth in La Liga with 11 points from seven games (W3 D2 L2), having conceded only six goals. Quique Sanchez Flores’ side drew 0-0 at Athletic Club last time out, which followed a 1-0 home defeat to Valencia and a 2-1 loss at Racing Santander. Before that dip, they beat Getafe 3-0, Villarreal 1-0 and Osasuna 5-2 at Mendizorroza, so home form has been a strength.
Lucas Boye leads the scoring with four league goals, three of which came in the win over Osasuna. Meanwhile, Mariano Diaz has three goals and three assists despite making only three starts, and Angel Perez has three assists. On the injury front, Ville Koski is out until early November with a quadriceps problem, while Facundo Garces and Mikel Rodriguez are sidelined until April with cruciate ligament injuries.
How Atletico Madrid go into the game
Atletico Madrid are second on 16 points (W5 D1 L1) and arrive on the back of a 2-1 home win over Real Madrid, with Alejandro Grimaldo scoring a penalty and Jonathan David also on target. Simeone’s side had earlier beaten Osasuna 4-0 and won 3-0 at Real Sociedad. Their only league defeat came on the road, as they lost 3-0 at Athletic Club, and they also lost 2-1 at Liverpool in the Champions League.
Alex Baena leads the way with four league goals, while David has three from just two starts. There are fitness questions after the international break: Alexander Sorloth is back in training after a calf injury but has yet to play this season, Grimaldo has a quadriceps overload and Kang-In Lee is nursing an ankle knock, although all three are listed as available. Pablo Barrios is fit again, and a Champions League game against Manchester United follows on Tuesday.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/26 | Atletico Madrid | 1-0 | Alaves |
| 30/08/25 | Alaves | 1-1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 03/05/25 | Alaves | 0-0 | Atletico Madrid |
| 23/11/24 | Atletico Madrid | 2-1 | Alaves |
| 21/04/24 | Alaves | 2-0 | Atletico Madrid |
Atletico Madrid have lost only one of the last six meetings in all competitions (W3 D2), yet Mendizorroza has been a tough venue for them. In fact, their last three visits produced a 1-1 draw, a 0-0 draw and a 2-0 Alaves win in April 2024. Simeone’s side won the most recent meeting 1-0 in Madrid in January.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid to win and over 2.5 goals | 19/10 (BoyleSports) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Over 2.5 goals in six straight Atletico games. |
| Half-time/full-time: Draw/Atletico Madrid | 4/1 (Sky Bet) | ⭐⭐ | Atletico were 0-0 at half-time in five of seven league games and won three of them. |
| Atletico Madrid to win | 87/100 (10bet) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Atletico have won five of seven league games and lost only once in the last six meetings. |
| Lucas Boye 3+ shots | 8/13 (10bet) | ⭐⭐ | Boye has had three or more shots in four of his six league starts. |
| Correct score: Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid | 15/2 (bet365) | ⭐⭐ | Alaves have scored in three of their four home games, but Atletico have the firepower to finish strongly. |
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid score prediction
Expect a cagey first half, given that only five of the 17 goals in Alaves’ league games and four of the 23 in Atletico’s have come before the break. Simeone’s side have scored 12 second-half league goals, and with Baena and David in form, they should have enough to edge a home side that has scored in three of its four games at Mendizorroza. Score prediction: Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid.
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