Premier League xG table 2026/27: The alternative league standings based on Expected Goals

Welcome to Squawka’s Premier League xG table for the 2026/27 season — an alternative league standings table showing what the Premier League would look like if every match finished on Expected Goals (xG) rather than the actual score.

Games are won by the goals that actually go in, but xG tells us how matches played out in terms of chances created and conceded. You could go as far as to say it shows who deserved to win. So, over 38 gameweeks, which teams would rise and which would fall if xG decided every result?

Last updated: 25 August 2026.

Premier League xG table 2026/27

The arrows next to each team show how their xG-table position compares with their position in the real Premier League table at the same stage of the season.

*Expected Goals values correct as of the latest update.

How the xG table works

To build the table, we look at every individual Premier League match and turn the xG numbers into a result. Each team’s xG for the match is rounded to the nearest whole number — 0.5 and above rounds up, anything below rounds down — and that gives us the xG scoreline.

Here’s an example from last season: Man City recorded an xG of 2.47 against Wolves, which rounds down to 2. Wolves posted 0.56, which rounds up to 1. So the xG result was Man City 2-1 Wolves — three points for City in the xG table, whatever the real score was.

Points, goals for, goals against and goal difference are all worked out from those rounded xG results, exactly as they would be in the real table. All xG values come from Opta, the data provider behind Squawka’s stats, with final values confirmed once each gameweek is complete.

Premier League xG for and against 2026/27

Alongside the alternative table, we’re tracking every club’s cumulative xG across the season — the raw, unrounded totals. Teams are ranked by xG For, so the side creating the best chances in the Premier League sits top. xG Against shows the quality of chances each team has given up, and xG Diff is the gap between the two.

xG overperformers and underperformers

Now the season is under way, this is where we’ll pick out the teams whose real results are furthest from their xG — the sides riding their luck, and the ones playing much better than their league position suggests. That includes the sharpest finishing gaps: the teams scoring well above or below what their xG says they should.

Last season showed how big those gaps can get. Sunderland finished 7th in the real Premier League table but just 18th on xG — an 11-place gap and the biggest overachievement in the division. Going the other way, Crystal Palace’s underlying numbers were good enough for 7th, yet they finished 15th in reality, while Chelsea’s xG said 5th against a real finish of 10th.The table below tracks finishing over- and underperformance: each club’s actual goals scored against their cumulative xG, ranked by the difference. A positive number means a team is scoring more than their chances deserve; a negative number means they’re wasting them.

GW1 xG results

Arsenal vs Coventry City

• Rounded xG result: Arsenal 2-0 Coventry City
• Actual result: Arsenal 3-0 Coventry City
• xG result: Arsenal 2.48-0.25 Coventry City

Hull City vs Manchester United

• Rounded xG result: Hull City 2-3 Manchester United
• Actual result: Hull City 2-0 Manchester United
• xG result: Hull City 1.86-2.79 Manchester United

Ipswich Town vs Sunderland

• Rounded xG result: Ipswich Town 2-1 Sunderland
• Actual result: Ipswich Town 2-1 Sunderland
• xG result: Ipswich Town 1.6-1.07 Sunderland

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United

• Rounded xG result: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Leeds United
• Actual result: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds United
• xG result: Nottingham Forest 0.88-0.75 Leeds United

Everton vs Crystal Palace

• Rounded xG result: Everton 2-2 Crystal Palace
• Actual result: Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace
• xG result: Everton 1.68-1.98 Crystal Palace

Brentford vs Tottenham

• Rounded xG result: Brentford 6-1 Tottenham
• Actual result: Brentford 3-0 Tottenham
• xG result: Brentford 6.01-0.62 Tottenham

Brighton vs Aston Villa

• Rounded xG result: Brighton 4-1 Aston Villa
• Actual result: Brighton 4-0 Aston Villa
• xG result: Brighton 4.05-1.47 Aston Villa

Manchester City vs Bournemouth

• Rounded xG result: Manchester City 3-1 Bournemouth
• Actual result: Manchester City 2-1 Bournemouth
• xG result: Manchester City 2.8-0.67 Bournemouth

Newcastle United vs Liverpool

• Rounded xG result: Newcastle United 2-5 Liverpool
• Actual result: Newcastle United 2-2 Liverpool
• xG result: Newcastle United 1.52-4.81 Liverpool

Fulham vs Chelsea

• Rounded xG result: Fulham 2-3 Chelsea
• Actual result: Fulham 2-3 Chelsea
• xG result: Fulham 2.16-2.53 Chelsea

xG table vs expected points (xPts)

Some sites rank teams by expected points (xPts) instead. That method estimates the probability of a win, draw or defeat from each match’s chances and awards a points share — so a team might earn 1.8 xPts from a dominant draw. Our xG table takes a different route: it converts each match’s xG into a concrete scoreline and awards real points off it. Both approaches answer the same question — what did performances deserve? — but an xG results table gives you actual wins, draws and defeats, and a table that reads like the real thing.

FAQs

How the 2025/26 xG table finished

For reference, here is how our final Premier League xG table looked at the end of last season. You can find the full gameweek-by-gameweek breakdown in our 2025/26 Premier League xG table archive.