Premier League xG table 2026/27: The alternative league standings based on Expected Goals

Welcome to Squawka’s Premier League xG table for the 2026/27 season — an alternative league standings table showing what the Premier League would look like if every match finished on Expected Goals (xG) rather than the actual score.

Games are won by the goals that actually go in, but xG tells us how matches played out in terms of chances created and conceded. You could go as far as to say it shows who deserved to win. So, over 38 gameweeks, which teams would rise and which would fall if xG decided every result?

Last updated: 22nd September 2026, after Gameweek 5.

Premier League xG table 2026/27

The arrows next to each team show how their xG-table position compares with their position in the real Premier League table at the same stage of the season.

*Expected Goals values correct as of the latest update.

How the xG table works

To build the table, we look at every individual Premier League match and turn the xG numbers into a result. Each team’s xG for the match is rounded to the nearest whole number — 0.5 and above rounds up, anything below rounds down — and that gives us the xG scoreline.

Here’s an example from last season: Man City recorded an xG of 2.47 against Wolves, which rounds down to 2. Wolves posted 0.56, which rounds up to 1. So the xG result was Man City 2-1 Wolves — three points for City in the xG table, whatever the real score was.

Points, goals for, goals against and goal difference are all worked out from those rounded xG results, exactly as they would be in the real table. All xG values come from Opta, the data provider behind Squawka’s stats, with final values confirmed once each gameweek is complete.

Premier League xG for and against 2026/27

Alongside the alternative table, we’re tracking every club’s cumulative xG across the season — the raw, unrounded totals. Teams are ranked by xG For, so the side creating the best chances in the Premier League sits top. xG Against shows the quality of chances each team has given up, and xG Diff is the gap between the two.

xG overperformers and underperformers

Five gameweeks in, the xG table has a new leader — and it’s the side sitting 12th in the real one. Manchester United are still unbeaten on underlying numbers and top our alternative standings, an 11-place gap that’s the biggest in the division. Sunderland (14th real, 6th xG), Bournemouth (17th real, 8th xG) and bottom-of-the-table Tottenham (12th on xG) are all playing far better than their results, while Newcastle United (9th real, 19th xG) and Everton (7th real, 14th xG) are living furthest beyond their means.

Brighton remain the league’s sharpest finishers — 16 goals from 10.58 xG — with Manchester City (13 from 8.66) and Newcastle United (nine from 4.86) also well above expectation. Nottingham Forest are now the division’s most wasteful side, with four goals from 7.54 xG, and Coventry City and Tottenham have three goals between them from nearly 10 combined xG.

GW5 xG results

Brentford vs Chelsea

• Actual result: Brentford 3-0 Chelsea
• xG result: Brentford 1.78-0.83 Chelsea
• Rounded xG result: Brentford 2-1 Chelsea

Tottenham vs Aston Villa

• Actual result: Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa
• xG result: Tottenham 1.61-1.40 Aston Villa
• Rounded xG result: Tottenham 2-1 Aston Villa

Newcastle United vs Hull City

• Actual result: Newcastle United 2-1 Hull City
• xG result: Newcastle United 1.32-1.35 Hull City
• Rounded xG result: Newcastle United 1-1 Hull City

Everton vs Ipswich Town

• Actual result: Everton 1-0 Ipswich Town
• xG result: Everton 1.90-1.06 Ipswich Town
• Rounded xG result: Everton 2-1 Ipswich Town

Brighton vs Arsenal

• Actual result: Brighton 3-0 Arsenal
• xG result: Brighton 1.66-1.20 Arsenal
• Rounded xG result: Brighton 2-1 Arsenal

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City

• Actual result: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry City
• xG result: Nottingham Forest 1.41-0.59 Coventry City
• Rounded xG result: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Coventry City

Manchester City vs Sunderland

• Actual result: Manchester City 5-3 Sunderland
• xG result: Manchester City 2.12-3.20 Sunderland
• Rounded xG result: Manchester City 2-3 Sunderland

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace

• Actual result: Leeds United 0-0 Crystal Palace
• xG result: Leeds United 1.35-1.06 Crystal Palace
• Rounded xG result: Leeds United 1-1 Crystal Palace

Bournemouth vs Liverpool

• Actual result: Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool
• xG result: Bournemouth 0.96-1.22 Liverpool
• Rounded xG result: Bournemouth 1-1 Liverpool

Fulham vs Manchester United

• Actual result: Fulham 1-1 Manchester United
• xG result: Fulham 1.43-2.14 Manchester United
• Rounded xG result: Fulham 1-2 Manchester United

xG table vs expected points (xPts)

Some sites rank teams by expected points (xPts) instead. That method estimates the probability of a win, draw or defeat from each match’s chances and awards a points share — so a team might earn 1.8 xPts from a dominant draw. Our xG table takes a different route: it converts each match’s xG into a concrete scoreline and awards real points off it. Both approaches answer the same question — what did performances deserve? — but an xG results table gives you actual wins, draws and defeats, and a table that reads like the real thing.

FAQs

How the 2025/26 xG table finished

For reference, here is how our final Premier League xG table looked at the end of last season. You can find the full gameweek-by-gameweek breakdown in our 2025/26 Premier League xG table archive.