Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest in the second leg of their Europa League semi-final tie on Thursday evening. Forest hold a slim advantage after the first 90 minutes; Braga or Freiburg await the winners in the final. Kick-off is at 8:00pm and below you can find our match preview and best bets, which include a selection from the player cards market.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers to be carded | 4/1 @ Bet365 (20.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | With a place in the Europa League final and a Champions League spot next year potentially on the line, I expect a high card count on Thursday. Morgan Rogers has been shown seven yellows in the Premier League this season and a further two in the Europa League. With tensions high after last week, 4/1 looks too big a price to ignore for Rogers to pick up his tenth caution of the campaign. |
| Villa to Win & BTTS | 14/5 @ Bet365 (26.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Unai Emery knows how to win in Europe and his Aston Villa side are strong favourites to go all the way again. Villa have been perfect at home in this competition with six wins from six, and their recent meetings with Nottingham Forest tend to deliver goals, with both teams scoring in eight of the last eleven. Villa have also dominated this fixture at Villa Park, winning the last four home meetings and scoring at least twice in each of them, underlining their attacking strength on their own ground. |
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Odds correct at the time of writing.
How both teams go into Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa are pushing to reach their first European final in decades, but they have work to do after a 1-0 first-leg loss to Nottingham Forest, where Chris Wood scored the winner from the spot. Unai Emery rotated heavily at the weekend and paid the price as Villa lost 2-1 to Tottenham Hotspur, making it five defeats in their last eight league games.
Despite that dip, Villa are still in the race for a top-five finish and remain strong at home in Europe, winning nine straight at Villa Park and scoring in 31 of their last 32. Emery’s record in this competition speaks for itself and history is on their side too, with Villa unbeaten at home to Forest since 1994, giving them real belief ahead of the second leg.
Nottingham Forest look a different side under Vitor Pereira, who has sparked a huge turnaround since arriving in February. A 10-game unbeaten run has lifted them clear of trouble and pushed them to the brink of a European final, with seven wins in that stretch and goals flowing, including a big result against Chelsea where Taiwo Awoniyi made the difference.
Forest now head into the second leg full of belief as they chase a first European final in over four decades, having already seen off Fenerbahce, FC Midtjylland and FC Porto. Their European pedigree is strong too, and history backs them when leading after the first leg, losing just one of their last 13 knockout ties in that position.
Aston Villa team news
Aston Villa are set to bring back their key players after rotation last time out, with Ollie Watkins leading the line again, while John McGinn should return from a minor issue; there are still doubts over Amadou Onana, with Ross Barkley unavailable and Boubacar Kamara injured, while Morgan Rogers has been a key contributor at home alongside Watkins in this competition.
Nottingham Forest team news
Nottingham Forest will look to Igor Jesus for inspiration after his strong away form in this competition, while Chris Wood is set to lead the line with Taiwo Awoniyi not in the European squad; Vitor Pereira rotated heavily last time out and will now rely on key men including Morgan Gibbs-White, who picked up a cut against Chelsea but should be fine, although Forest still have several absentees with Ola Aina, Ibrahim Sangare, Murillo and others unavailable or doubtful.
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
Recent history gives a slight edge to Aston Villa, who have lost only two of the last six competitive meetings, though Forest have proven difficult to break down on their day.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 30/04/26 | Nottingham Forest 1-0 Aston Villa | League |
| 12/04/26 | Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa | League |
| 03/01/26 | Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest | League |
| 05/04/25 | Aston Villa 2-1 Nottingham Forest | League |
| 14/12/24 | Nottingham Forest 2-1 Aston Villa | League |
| 24/02/24 | Aston Villa 4-2 Nottingham Forest | League |
Final Thoughts
Villa will need to be much improved after their performance against Spurs last weekend; however, they hold a strong record over Forest, and we can see them coming out on top here with both teams scoring at 14/5. For those looking for something from the player market, take the 4/1 on show with bet365 for Morgan Rogers to be carded.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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