With Real Madrid enjoying a near-flawless La Liga campaign and boasting an imposing head-to-head record, Alavés travel to the Santiago Bernabéu with the odds — and history — firmly stacked against them.
The hosts have swept aside most challengers this season, while Alavés are fighting to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap. Kick-off is set for Tuesday evening at the Santiago Bernabéu, where the gulf in class and confidence will be under the spotlight.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Real Madrid’s remarkable attacking stats and their dominance in this fixture, our top betting recommendations lean heavily towards a home win and a star performance from Kylian Mbappé. We’re particularly confident in a Real Madrid victory — they’ve won 15 of their last 17 against Alavés and arrive with the best attack in the league.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to Win | 3/10 @ Bet365 (76.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We are backing Real Madrid to win because they’ve won 15 of their last 17 meetings with Alavés, including the last five in all competitions. Madrid also lead the league for goals, assists, and expected goals, underlining their class at both ends. |
| Kylian Mbappé Anytime Scorer | 1/2 @ Bet365 (66.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Mbappé has 23 goals in 27 league appearances — more than double Alavés’s top scorer. His shot accuracy is a league-leading 48.5%. Against an Alavés side conceding nearly 1.5 goals per game, he looks primed to add to his tally. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Season Form & Standings
Real Madrid are second in the league with 70 points from 31 games, powered by a prolific attack (65 goals) and the tightest possession stats in Spain. Alavés sit 17th, just above the drop zone, with 33 points and a worrying –11 goal difference. Madrid’s win rate is a formidable 71%, while Alavés have lost nearly half their matches. Momentum is firmly with the home side.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2 | 31 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 65 | 29 | +36 | 70 |
| Alavés | 17 | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 33 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid): Averaging 0.85 goals per game and nearly 50% shot accuracy, the Frenchman is a constant threat and leads the league’s scoring charts. He’s also adding more assists to his game, with four so far.
- Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid): Known for his direct running and dribbling, Vinícius regularly ranks among the top for touches in the opposition box and chances created per 90.
- Arda Güler (Real Madrid): Madrid’s creative spark with eight assists and a pass accuracy of over 90%. He’s key for unlocking deep defences and could be influential against an Alavés side likely to sit back.
- Lucas Boyé (Alavés): Alavés’s main attacking outlet, but with just 35 team goals all season, he’ll need to be clinical with limited opportunities.
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
Real Madrid have dominated the last six meetings with Alavés, winning every one and conceding just four goals in the process.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14/12/25 | Alavés 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 13/04/25 | Alavés 0-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 24/09/24 | Real Madrid 3-2 Alavés | La Liga |
| 14/05/24 | Real Madrid 5-0 Alavés | La Liga |
| 21/12/23 | Alavés 0-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 25/02/23 | Real Madrid 4-1 Alavés | La Liga |
Conclusion
Can Alavés defy the odds and claim a result at the Bernabéu, or will Real Madrid’s relentless form and firepower prove too much? The data points firmly to another home victory, with Kylian Mbappé in the kind of form that few in Europe can match. For those seeking value, 1/2 @ Bet365 (66.7%) on Mbappé to score anytime stands out as a strong selection among our tips.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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