Nottingham Forest welcome Porto to the City Ground in the Europa League on Thursday with a place in the semi-final up for grabs. The pair are locked together after a 1-1 draw in the quarter-final first leg seven days ago, with The Tricky Trees favourites to advance to the final four. You can find our match preview and best bets below.
Best bets & predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to Win | 5/4 @ Bet365 (44.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Across the two Europa League meetings this season, Nottingham Forest have the edge in results against FC Porto, remaining unbeaten with one win and one draw. They have scored three goals and conceded just once, giving them a positive goal difference and an average of 1.5 goals per game compared to Porto’s 0.5. The first meeting at the City Ground ended in a 2-0 win for Forest, a match defined by control and efficiency in front of goal. Overall, the tie has followed a split pattern, with Forest holding the stronger results and defensive record, while Porto have looked the more dangerous side in open play and chance creation. |
| Gibbs-White Over 1.5 Shots on Target | 10/3 @ Bet365 (23.1%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Morgan Gibbs-White looks well placed to register at least two shots in this game for Nottingham Forest, given both his role and recent output. In the Europa League he has produced 23 shots in 756 minutes, with 12 on target, and at home he averages close to two attempts per match across five appearances. Operating as the central attacking midfielder in a 4-2-3-1, he is regularly involved in final-third actions and benefits from Forest’s overall shot volume of around 15.9 per game. After a quiet first leg where Forest generated limited chances, a return to home conditions should increase his involvement and give him enough opportunity to reach two or more shots. |
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How both teams go into Nottingham Forest vs Porto
Nottingham Forest have had a mixed season overall, balancing a tough Premier League fight with a more encouraging Europa League run. They started the league phase slowly with just one win in their first four matches, including a 2-0 victory over FC Porto, but finished strongly with three wins from their final four games to secure a 13th-place finish and a knockout play-off spot.
In the knockout rounds, Forest beat Fenerbahce 4-2 on aggregate before edging past Midtjylland on penalties after a 2-2 draw. Against Porto in the quarter-finals, they held on for a 1-1 first-leg draw despite being heavily outshot, but their home form in the knockouts has been less reliable, with two defeats already at the City Ground. Still, their earlier 2-0 win over Porto there offers encouragement ahead of the second leg.
FC Porto arrive in strong overall form, unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions, with two wins and three draws in their last five. They have lost just once in this Europa League campaign, underlining a season built on consistency and control.
Porto finished fifth in the league phase with five wins, two draws and one defeat before beating VfB Stuttgart 4-1 in the round of 16. Domestically, they also lead Liga Portugal by five points with an impressive record of 24 wins, four draws and one loss from 29 games. However, their record against English sides is less convincing, with no wins in their last five meetings, including a 2-0 defeat and 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest this season.
Nottingham Forest team news
Nottingham Forest will still be without Jair Cunha, Nicolo Savona, Willy Boly and John Victor through injury, but they are boosted by the return of Elliot Anderson from suspension, who could start alongside Ibrahim Sangare in midfield. The rest of the side may stay similar to the draw with Aston Villa, although Stefan Ortega is expected to replace Matz Sels in goal.
Porto team news
FC Porto will be without Luuk de Jong, Martim Fernandes, Samu Aghehowa and Nehuen Perez due to injury. After a strong first-leg performance, manager Francesco Farioli could stick with an unchanged XI as they aim to finish the job in the second leg.
Head-to-head
Nottingham Forest have already faced Porto twice in the Europa League this season. After a tricky start to the campaign, Forest came out 2-0 winners in the league phase, before securing a 1-1 draw in Portugal seven days ago.
Conclusion
FC Porto may have had the more consistent season overall, but this specific matchup has tilted in favour of Nottingham Forest, who also benefit from home advantage. With that in mind, the Tricky Trees are backed to edge this contest and secure a win at around 5/4 with most bookmakers.
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