Bologna host Aston Villa in the first leg of their Europa League quarter-final tie on Thursday evening. The game kicks-off at 8:00pm and below you can find our match preview and best bets for the occasion.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa Double Chance (Win or Draw) | 8/11 @ Bet365 (57.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We are backing Aston Villa to avoid defeat because they’ve won both previous meetings with Bologna and have not drawn a single Europa League match this season (7 wins, 1 loss). Their pass accuracy (87.2%) and shot accuracy (45.95%) point to effective game management, even if their shot volume is lower. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 6/5 @ Betfair (45.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | There could be value here due to Bologna’s high shot output (223 this season) and Villa’s clinical finishing. Both teams saw over 2.5 total goals in their last matches, and Bologna’s last outing produced four goals from just 14 shots. |
How both teams head into Bologna vs Aston Villa
Bologna have struggled in Birmingham before, losing twice at Villa Park in the last 18 months. However, the Rossoblu have gone 11 European games without defeat, with that Villa Park loss their only setback in 15 matches. Under manager Italiano, Bologna are reaching their first UEFA quarter-final since 1998-99, having beaten Roma and SK Brann on the way.
After a memorable Coppa Italia win and Champions League campaign last season, Bologna are now focused on the Europa League. With domestic cup exits and Serie A hopes fading, this competition is their main route back into Europe. Recent form, including three wins in four games, gives the team confidence heading into the knockout stages.
Aston Villa are back in action after more than two weeks, aiming to stay in the Premier League top five and push for Europa League glory. The 1982 European champions have reached their third consecutive continental quarter-final after a 3-0 aggregate win over Lille, adding to recent campaigns where they also ousted Lille and narrowly lost to Paris Saint-Germain.
Villa’s form in Europe has been strong, with nine wins from 10 matches this season, offering a boost amid a tricky domestic run. Unai Emery, a four-time Europa League winner, brings plenty of experience, and his team now heads to Bologna confident after recent wins and previous tactical success against Vincenzo Italiano.
Bologna team news
Lewis Ferguson has played in all 12 of Bologna’s Europa League games this season, while Federico Bernardeschi has scored five goals, including strikes in both legs against Roma. Jonathan Rowe could also trouble the defence, having been involved in five goals over his last six European appearances and scoring on Sunday.
Bologna will be without Martin Vitik due to suspension, but Juan Miranda returns after serving a one-match ban. Availability is uncertain for Benjamin Dominguez, Charalampos Lykogiannis, Thijs Dallinga, and Jens Odgaard, while first-choice goalkeeper Lukasz Skorupski remains sidelined, leaving Federico Ravaglia to continue in goal.
Aston Villa team news
After a rare break, Unai Emery is expected to field his strongest team on Thursday, with Youri Tielemans potentially starting for the first time in weeks. Boubacar Kamara remains sidelined, Ross Barkley is ineligible, and on-loan winger Jadon Sancho is out with a shoulder injury.
A boost for Villa comes in the form of captain John McGinn, who returned before the international break. He has scored nine goals in Europe, including one in each of the previous meetings with Bologna, and could become the first Villan to reach double figures in continental competition.
Last 6 Meetings
Aston Villa have won both previous competitive meetings with Bologna, without conceding a single goal.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 25/09/25 | Aston Villa 1-0 Bologna | Europa League |
| 22/10/24 | Aston Villa 2-0 Bologna | Europa League |
Conclusion: Can Villa Continue Their Dominance?
Will Aston Villa make it three from three against Bologna, or will the hosts’ high shot volume and Bernardeschi’s scoring touch finally turn the tide? Villa’s passing and shooting accuracy, plus their consistent results in Europe, suggest they’re well-placed to avoid defeat—making the 8/11 @ Bet365 (57.9% implied probability) on Double Chance a standout play for punters.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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