Stoke City make the short trip to face Derby County in a contest that could shape both sides’ hopes of a top-half finish in the Championship — not to mention Derby’s still-considerable playoff aspirations. Recent head-to-head meetings have been closely fought, with Stoke coming out on top in their last clash. Kick-off is scheduled for 15:00 on Monday at Pride Park, and all eyes will be on whether Derby can make home advantage count against a Stoke side boasting statistical edges in several key areas.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Stoke City’s superior shot accuracy, stronger defensive record, and the attacking threat of their creative midfielders, our top betting recommendations centre on both teams to score and player disciplinary markets. We’re particularly confident in ‘Both Teams to Score’ due to each team’s tendency to both find the net and concede, while the value in the cards market stands out given both sides’ disciplinary records.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score – Yes | 4/5 @ Betfred (55.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We’re backing goals at both ends as Derby have scored 58 and conceded 51 in 40 games, while Stoke have 48 for and 43 against. Both teams have hit the net in four of the last six meetings, and neither defence looks watertight. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 10/11 @ Bet365 (52.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Derby matches average 2.7 goals, Stoke 2.3. With both attack-minded, and Derby’s defence conceding from inside the box regularly, there’s value in this total goals line. |
| Ben Pearson to be Carded | 11/8 @ Bet365 (42.1%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Pearson has a reputation for tough tackling and will be in the thick of midfield battles. With Derby drawing plenty of fouls, and Stoke averaging 80 yellows this term, this looks a smart play at the price. |
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Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Season Form & Standings
Derby County sit 8th with 60 points, Stoke City 12th on 54. Derby’s matches have been high-scoring, but their defence remains leaky, while Stoke have kept more clean sheets but have been less prolific up front. This clash could go a long way to determining if Derby can push for the playoff spots in the final stretch.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County | 8 | 40 | 17 | 9 | 14 | 58 | 51 | +7 | 60 |
| Stoke City | 12 | 40 | 15 | 9 | 16 | 48 | 43 | +5 | 54 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Carlton Morris (Derby County) – Leading Derby’s line, Morris averages strong shot volume and is a focal point of their attack, with a knack for getting into dangerous positions. Has 10 goals this season.
- Ben Brereton Díaz (Derby County) – Known for his powerful runs and ability to create chances, Díaz adds unpredictability to Derby’s front line.
- Jesurun Rak-Sakyi (Stoke City) – Brings flair and one-on-one threat from wide areas, capable of unlocking defences and drawing fouls.
- Benjamin Sorba Thomas (Stoke City) – With 10 assists and 80 chances created, Thomas is Stoke’s chief creator, supplying quality service and set-pieces. Has 10 goals of his own.
Head-to-Head
Last 6 Meetings
The last six meetings between Derby County and Stoke City have produced three Stoke wins, two Derby victories and a draw.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 09/08/25 | Stoke City 3-1 Derby County | Championship |
| 03/05/25 | Derby County 0-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| 02/11/24 | Stoke City 2-1 Derby County | Championship |
| 30/12/21 | Stoke City 1-2 Derby County | Championship |
| 18/09/21 | Derby County 2-1 Stoke City | Championship |
| 20/03/21 | Stoke City 1-0 Derby County | Championship |
Will Derby’s attacking intent overcome Stoke’s defensive solidity?
With Stoke City boasting higher pass accuracy, more clean sheets, and a creative force in Sorba Thomas, they will be tough to break down. But Derby, despite a leaky backline, have scored freely and have the home crowd behind them. This looks set for an open contest, and our pick of 4/5 @ Betfred (55.6%) on both teams to score is where the value lies.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.