The end of the Uefa World Cup qualifying cycle is here, with four brutal playoff matches set to decide who will take the final spots in North America this summer.
Eight teams will lock horns in high-stakes, one-off finals, with the winners advancing to the tournament and the losers suffering the heartbreak of staying home.
Italy are once again the biggest name in the frame and will look to beat Bosnia and Herzegovina to avoid missing an unthinkable third straight World Cup. Meanwhile, Czech Republic vs Denmark and Sweden vs Poland will be too close to call, while Turkey will look to avoid an upset against a dangerous Kosovo side.
It’s going to be a night of tension, where one moment or mistake could decide a nation’s fate. With that in mind, we’ve taken a look at one key battle you should look out for in each match.
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Path A: Edin Dzeko vs Alessandro Bastoni (Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Italy)
This is the ultimate battle between an experienced veteran making his last stand and a defender in his prime and enjoying one of the best seasons of his life.
At 40 years old, Edin Dzeko is still going strong, and looking to join an exclusive group of overall players and outfield players to feature at the World Cup after hitting the big 4-0. In the latter group, Roger Milla is the only other player to do so.
Dzeko finally started to show signs that he was dropping off when he netted just two goals in 18 appearances across all competitions for Fiorentina at the start of this season, and none in 11 Serie A outings. However, his form for the likes of Fenerbahce, Inter and Roma was fresh in the memory, and he’s registered six goals and three assists in eight 2. Bundesliga appearances since joining Schalke in January, helping the Gelsenkirchen side sit top of the table with just seven games to go.
He’ll come up against his former Inter teammate, Alessandro Bastoni, on Tuesday night.
Dzeko heads into the match in form, having netted the equaliser against Wales in the playoff semi-final to force extra-time and penalties. However, in Bastoni, he’ll be facing one of Europe’s most in-form elite centre-backs right now.
Bastoni, 26, is in Inter’s top three performers in Serie A this season for tackles (2nd), interceptions (3rd), clearances (2nd) and aerial duels won (2nd) — as well as passes completed (2nd). He was formidable for 63 minutes against Northern Ireland last time out, before being brought out to protect against a sending off, having been booked.
Who will win this ultimate physical battle? The answer to that question could define this playoff — especially considering the nerves that Italy will carry to Zenica.
Path B: Viktor Gyokeres vs Jakub Kiwior (Sweden vs Poland)
Technically an Arsenal derby — though Jakub Kiwior is, of course, on loan at Porto — Viktor Gyokeres is a man in form ahead of this clash in Solna.
The Gunners striker scored a hat-trick to fire Sweden to a 3-1 win over Ukraine in the playoff semi-final, meaning he has 12 goals and two assists for club and country since the turn of the year.
The biggest difference Gyokeres has made to Arsenal is his physical presence and the runs he makes to occupy centre-backs. With Alexander Isak still sidelined, that focal point will be vital to Sweden.
Equally, while much of the attention for Poland will be on whether or not Robert Lewandowski can fire himself to one last major tournament, it’s up to Jakub Kiwior and his centre-back partners to manage the bullish threat of Gyokeres.
Kiwior is second at Porto in the Primeira Liga this season for tackles (37), interceptions (30), clearances (66), aerial duels won (32) and possessions won in the defensive third (43). He’s proven this season he can mix it defensively both on the ground and in the air, and he’ll have to summon all of those qualities against Gyokeres — who will be equally as focused on creating openings for the likes of Anthony Elanga, Benjamin Nygren and Roony Bardghji as he will be on scoring himself.
Path C: Veldin Hodza vs Arda Guler (Kosovo vs Turkey)
Arda Guler’s stock continues to rise, and he’s undoubtedly the heartbeat of this Turkish side now — even with Kenan Yildiz around — as proven with his assist for Ferdi Kadioglu against Romania in the 1-0 playoff semi-final win.
Guler has registered 33 direct goal involvements (10g/23a) for Real Madrid since the start of last season, and is second only to Lamine Yamal and Luis Milla (both 9) for La Liga assists this campaign. The 21-year-old is even more important to Turkey, hitting six goals and seven assists so far, with the most recent, as mentioned, helping secure this playoff final berth.
He’s dynamic, supremely technically gifted and fearless, so how do you stop Guler? Well, Kosovo might just have the best man for the job.
If the Dardanians are to secure their first-ever major tournament berth, they’re going to have to shut down Turkey’s many threats, and to do that, they’ll turn to Veldin Hodza — especially with Napoli’s Amir Rrahmani being injured.
Hodza is a man born to tackle and disrupt. The Rubin Kazan midfielder made a team-high five tackles in the dramatic 4-3 win over Slovakia in the playoff semi-final. He also made three clearances, one recovery, and contested 14 ground duels in a dynamic performance — not to mention scoring Kosovo’s first goal.
That has been the continuation of a trend in this qualifying campaign, where Hodza sits third among his teammates for tackles (2.5) and fourth for defensive contributions (5.8) per 90 minutes.
Expect Hodza to stick close to Guler in an attempt to make the Real Madrid man’s life hell on Tuesday.
Path D: Patrik Schick vs Christian Norgaard (Czech Republic vs Denmark)
Denmark have a whole host of absences at the back, so we expect Christian Norgaard to continue in his centre-back role, just as he did against North Macedonia.
Norgaard scored the fourth goal in that 4-0 victory, while absolutely locking it down at the back with 4/5 aerial duel success, two tackles, one block, three clearances and an interception.
He’ll face a much bigger challenge on Tuesday in Prague as he comes up against Patrik Schick. The 30-year-old’s form at club level in recent years has been no secret, with Schick netting 55 goals since the start of 2023/24 to help Bayer Leverkusen win Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal and DFL-Supercup titles, as well as reaching a Europa League final.
That’s translated to national team level, too, with Schick — a Euro 2020 joint-top scorer alongside Cristiano Ronaldo — bagging five goals in seven caps this year alone. One of those goals came from the penalty spot as the Czechs just made it past the Republic of Ireland in the semi-final.
Schick is a dominant physical force and could choose to stay high on Norgaard, exploiting any weaknesses with the Dane playing out of position.
However, the 30-year-old has been operating behind the main striker for the Czechs, linking play and making late runs, rather than being a wall to hit.
This is where Norgaard has a decision to make: does he step into a more familiar midfield position to shut down Schick, or keep watch for any runs into the box or openings created for others?
These are questions he must answer if Denmark are to pick up a huge away win and punch their ticket to North America.