With Celta Vigo pushing for European places and Alavés battling at the wrong end of the La Liga table, this clash at Balaídos on Sunday has plenty riding on it for both clubs.
Celta’s strong home record and historical head-to-head edge make them favourites, but Alavés arrive desperate for points and with a reputation for making life difficult for their hosts.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on season-long trends and head-to-head records, here are our top betting recommendations for this fixture. We’re especially confident in Celta Vigo to win, thanks to their superior form, home advantage, and attacking metrics.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo to Win | 5/6 @ Bet365 (54.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Celta have won six of their last nine home games against Alavés and boast a far superior attacking record this season. They’re unbeaten in 79% of their league matches and have the sixth-best defence in the division. Alavés, by contrast, have lost half their games and are struggling for goals. |
| Both Teams to Score – No | 4/6 @ Bet365 (60.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Alavés have failed to score in 11 of their 28 league matches this season, while Celta have kept eight clean sheets. With both teams under 1.5 goals per game, the stats point towards at least one side drawing a blank. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Season Form & Standings
Celta Vigo sit securely in the top six thanks to a positive goal difference (+7), a solid 36% win rate and the joint-third best defensive record in the league. Alavés, meanwhile, are just above the relegation spots, with only 25% of their matches ending in victory and a concerning -12 goal difference.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 6 | 28 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 38 | 31 | +7 | 41 |
| Alavés | 17 | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 28 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Borja Iglesias (Celta Vigo) – Leads Celta’s line and is their top attacking outlet, averaging more than two shots per 90 minutes. His movement and finishing will be key against an Alavés defence that has already shipped 38 goals.
- Ferran Jutglà (Celta Vigo) – A versatile attacker with the ability to create chances inside the box, contributing to Celta’s strong xG overperformance.
- Luis Rioja (Alavés) – The visitors’ primary creative force, responsible for a significant share of their big chances and assists. If Alavés are to threaten, it will likely be through his invention on the left flank.
- Jon Guridi (Alavés) – Brings defensive steel and a high tackle count, averaging over three tackles per game. His ball-winning ability will be crucial in disrupting Celta’s rhythm.
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
The last six meetings have mostly favoured Celta Vigo, who have taken four wins to Alavés’s two, with goals at a premium in recent clashes.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10/11/25 | Alavés 1-2 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 02/03/25 | Celta Vigo 2-0 Alavés | La Liga |
| 26/09/24 | Alavés 1-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 01/04/24 | Celta Vigo 1-0 Alavés | La Liga |
| 06/11/23 | Alavés 0-2 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 05/02/23 | Celta Vigo 1-2 Alavés | La Liga |
Will Celta Vigo’s home form prove decisive?
Celta Vigo’s home advantage and efficient attack make them rightful favourites, but Alavés’s need for points means they could be dangerous if given a foothold. Given Celta’s defensive record and Alavés’s struggles in front of goal, a home win at 5/6 (54.5%) with Bet365 stands out as the value pick for punters. Those looking for a longer shot could consider Borja Iglesias to score at any time at 7/5 (41.7%).
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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