As the Championship nears the end of its regular season, there are still no certainties on either end of the league table.
The only mathematically confirmed outcome so far is Sheffield Wednesday’s relegation to League One. The Owls are sitting 24th with -6 points and could be facing yet another heavy points deduction in the third tier next year as well.
Other than that, it’s still all very much to play for. Coventry City look to have run away with automatic promotion, but did lose at home last time around and looked shaky for a two-month span between December and February.
On the opposite end, just four points separate 23rd-placed Leicester City and Blackburn Rovers in 19th. In addition to that, there are also only six points between 18th (Charlton Athletic) and eighth (Derby County). It’s one of the tightest seasons the second tier has had to date – which makes rankings for promotion chances a difficult task. But we will try nonetheless.
Coventry
- Current position: 1st
- Current points: 77
The league leaders recovered from their slip-ups in the finest of forms: six straight wins over the last month.
Although the streak did end there with a home loss to Southampton, the Sky Blues are set to face the lesser of the playoff-contending teams (Swansea, Derby and Hull) before a trip to the bottom of the table (Sheffield Wednesday, Blackburn and Portsmouth).
With Middlesbrough also losing momentum and Ipswich not as convincing as they had been in previous times, promotion looks like 99% guaranteed for Frank Lampard’s men.
Ipswich
- Current position: 3rd
- Current points: 68
Ipswich have been collecting points and wins despite not impressing as much recently. It took them 78 minutes to break the deadlock against Wednesday last time around, which followed underwhelming draws against Stoke and Leicester.
And yet, the Tractor Boys have a chance to leapfrog Boro and go second, as they have a game in hand against Portsmouth. Their following match, in fact, will be one of the most important fixtures of the whole season: at home to Middlesbrough on 18th April.
Middlesbrough
- Current position: 2nd
- Current points: 70
Boro are still dominating teams, but ‘Hellball’ seems to have faded a little bit. They attempted a whopping 34 shots in the home loss to Charlton, but Opta’s Expected Goals model says that just one of them was worth more than 0.20 xG.
When they did create good chances against Bristol City, they missed almost all of them. At the back, set pieces have been their Achilles heel as of late.
Since the top-of-the-league showdown at the CBS Arena when they lost to Coventry, Kim Hellberg’s men haven’t been the same. They would still be favoured in the play-off scenario, but don’t look as likely for the automatics as Ipswich right now.
Southampton
- Current position: 7th
- Current points: 57
It might seem weird to see a team currently outside the play-off picture sitting fourth in this ranking. But Southampton finally seem to be the team that they should have been from the start, considering parachute payments and a squad with recent Premier League experience.
Tonda Eckert has done a tremendous job since getting the full-time manager job. They are now unbeaten in their last 10 league games – 12 across all competitions, featuring an FA Cup win against Fulham that sent them to the quarter finals, where they will face Premier League leaders Arsenal in early April.
Saints, on paper, are a much better side than any other team currently outside the top six. And they will also face relegation-threatened teams like Oxford United and Blackburn as well as mid-table teams such as Swansea and Bristol City until the end of the season.
- READ MORE: Southampton analysis: Why promotion to the Premier League is a real possibility for the Saints
Millwall
- Current position: 4th
- Current points: 68
Millwall could be headed towards their first ever Premier League appearance. They had a brief two-season spell in the top flight between 1988 and 1990 and have since spent all of their time in the lower divisions.
But currently fourth in the Championship and having lost just three of their last 16 league games, they are still battling for a spot in the automatics rather than already thinking about play-off football.
The Lions did lose last time around, but only thanks to Zak Sturge’s red card just five minutes after Luke Cundle put them 1-0 up at home to Blackburn. They couldn’t deal with the Rovers’ extra man and succumbed, conceding two goals in five minutes late on.
Their solid defence and strong set piece habits are good starting points for any Championship side aiming for promotion, even if they lack technical quality. But if they find themselves in the play-offs, talent and experience could favour Southampton and either one of Middlesbrough and Ipswich, making Millwall a dark horse of sorts.
They are having a remarkable season, but the teams above them on this list are either better or have been in this situation more often recently, giving them the benefit of the doubt.
Wrexham
- Current position: 6th
- Current points: 60
Wrexham are sixth in the table, but with a game in hand relative to Hull in fifth. A win over Watford would see them take a small leap and surpass the Tigers.
And even though they lost to Hull immediately after a heartbreaking – and undeserved – loss to Chelsea in the FA Cup, Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney’s led club still look like a safer bet.
The Red Dragons have picked up in performances starting on Boxing Day, losing just three of their 15 league matches in this span. The other two were against strong, in-form opponents (Norwich and Millwall).
Kieffer Moore’s recent injury is bad news for them, but Sam Smith has done a decent job when called upon this calendar year. Nathan Broadhead has also started playing better and could help him share the goalscoring burden.
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Hull
- Current position: 5th
- Current points: 63
Hull City are still one of the more entertaining watches in the Championship. They are one of just three sides to have both scored (59) and conceded (56) 50+ goals this season, alongside Sheffield United and Leicester City.
But it always felt like they were punching above their weight. Only the Blades have drawn fewer games (five) than the Tigers (six), leaving most of their games in either wins (19) or defeats (13). The problem is that, as of late, the scales have been tipping towards the latter (five defeats from their last eight league games).
They are six points clear of Southampton in seventh, but the Saints have a game in hand. A win for them could make things uncomfortable for Sergej Jakirovic’s men. But considering how close they were to being relegated last season, what a campaign this has been for them.
- READ MORE: Hull City tactical analysis: How chaotic Tigers have been overachieving in the Championship
Derby
- Current position: 8th
- Current points: 54
Derby have had their moments this season but ultimately look a level below the play-off contenders. But health has played a part in them staying behind.
Carlton Morris’ injury came in the worst time possible and he has yet to score a goal since returning. Goalkeeper Jacob Zetterstrom has been out for nearly two months now and his replacement Josh Vickers went out injured last time around against Millwall.
That’s not to say that failing to reach the top-6 come final day would be a wasted season. John Eustace’s ‘formula’ has once again been proven sustainable in the second tier and they have decent and fun attacking options.
Although the play-offs look increasingly less likely for the Rams, their schedule until the end of the campaign is rather light. They will face the likes of Coventry and Southampton away, but also Portsmouth, Stoke, Oxford and QPR.
Norwich
- Current position: 12th
- Current points: 51
Twelfth might look way too far off the play-off spots, but Norwich City have been good enough to have the other 23 teams on notice.
Philippe Clement took what looked like a devastated squad following their start under Liam Manning and turned things around really quickly.
No side has picked up more points than the Canaries’ 30 since the turn of the year (P13 W10 L3). Sporting director Ben Knapper made some questionable signings over the summer but got it all right in the winter transfer window.
They are nine points off sixth, which is a large gap to cut in nine games. It is a long shot, but they are only down here because of the terrible start. There may be no team playing better than them at the moment.
Birmingham
- Current position: 9th
- Current points: 53
Birmingham’s play-off chances are still alive, but they aren’t the best. The Blues did have a solid stretch between January and February, remaining unbeaten in 10 games across all competitions.
Since then, however, five games with one win, one draw and three defeats. Chris Davies could be in trouble in the summer, since chairman Tom Wagner’s goal for the season was to win promotion. But looking at all the clubs in the division, their squad doesn’t look like a top-six one.
Watford
- Current position: 10th
- Current points: 52
Watford endured a poor start to the season under Paulo Pezzolano, but Javi Gracia came back to give fans hope. It didn’t last long, however, as he resigned after just three months in charge.
The board decided to appoint Will Still’s brother and former assistant Ed Still as permanent manager. In six games during his tenure so far, two wins, two draws and two losses.
The Hornets do have one of the best players in the league in Imran Louza, but not much more consitent and proven talent elsewhere. Failing to reach the play-offs wouldn’t be a disappointment, though. In fact, 10th would be their best league finish since the relegation from the Premier League in 2022.
Sheffield United
- Current position: 15th
- Current points: 50
Sheffield United’s season was doomed the moment they couldn’t reach an agreement with Chris Wilder and named Ruben Selles as his successor in the summer.
They went from winning 90 points and just shy of Premier League football to the relegation zone in the first third of the season in just six months.
While Wilder’s return did fuel a good run of results, especially between November and December, most of the damage was already done. They still play well and are much better than the league table suggests, but have been shooting themselves on the foot lately.
Lots of untimely red cards, own goals and individual errors that have stalled what could have been an impressive turnaround season. Top six is still mathematically possible, but increasingly less likely.
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Swansea
- Current position: 11th
- Current points: 52
Swansea might be a mid-table side right now, but their season has definitely been a success. They looked boring and hopeless under Alan Sheehan, but the board got it right when replacing him with Vitor Matos.
It was a gamble considering the little experience he had as head coach, with Maritimo in the Portuguese second tier. But he has done an amazing job turning things around at Swansea.
They ultimately lack talent and depth in order to make a push for the play-offs. But the Swans have been a fun story since the managerial change in November.
Stoke
- Current position: 13th
- Current points: 51
It once looked like Mark Robbins would do it again at Stoke following his play-off heroics with Coventry City a few years back.
The Potters were in and around the top-6 for quite some time early on, but unfortunately have suffered a lot with injuries.
Getting into the play-offs now is a distant dream, but despite sitting 13th with more losses than wins, they are on the right track under the right manager.
Charlton
- Current position: 18th
- Current points: 48
We drew the line at Charlton considering that Blackburn are directly below them with six fewer points. While there is a mathematical chance for them to reach the top six, not even the most optimistic Charlton fan thinks about play-off football this year.
It’s still worth giving an honourable mention for Nathan Jones’ work here. He is quite the character and definitely has a lot of haters around the league for his antics and interviews. But has done a great job steering them to safety with limited squad and investment.
QPR
- Current position: 16th
- Current points: 50
Queens Park Rangers on their day can be a very entertaining side. It’s hard to think of a team that can lose 7-1 one day and immediately go on a three-game winning streak.
Julien Stephan had interesting spells back in France, but QPR can’t seem to find any sort of consistency.
Bristol City
- Current position: 14th
- Current points: 51
Bristol City reached the play-offs last year when few expected, a testament to Liam Manning’s job at the helm. But not only did things go bad for him at Norwich, but also for the Robins themselves.
Gerhard Struber is now under pressure after leading them to a good start only for it all to fall apart recently. They dropped down the Championship table but also lost to Port Vale, bottom of League One, in the FA Cup.
Preston
Current position: 17th
Current points: 49
Preston were sitting fourth two months ago. Nobody expected them to follow through with their success until the end of the season. But it was a great story after a tough 2024-25 campaign. And it actually prompted us into writing about it.
Since this piece, however, they have won just one of their 12 league games. The last four have all ended in defeat.
Everton recalling Harrison Armstrong from his loan spell at Deepdale kickstarted their drop off. The board failed to replace him adequately and they ran out of the luck that put them in fourth in the first place. Still, falling so far down in the table wasn’t in anyone’s bingo card either.