Alaves welcome Villarreal in a clash that pits one of La Liga’s most goal-shy sides against one of its most prolific.
With the hosts hovering just above the relegation zone and Villarreal chasing European places, the stakes are clear: survival versus ambition. Kick-off is set for Friday evening at Mendizorrotza, where recent head-to-heads and contrasting attacking threat provide plenty for punters to ponder.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Villarreal’s clinical edge in front of goal and Alaves’s reliance on a single goalscorer, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in Villarreal to take all three points, given their firepower and recent run of form.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal to Win | 6/5 @ Bet365 (45.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We are backing Villarreal to win because they’ve scored double Alaves’s total this season (50 to 25), and their creative threat is spread across three players. Alaves have only kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches, while Villarreal have the fourth-best attack in the league. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 11/10 @ Paddy Power (47.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | There could be value here due to Villarreal’s free-scoring record (50 goals, 1.85 per game) and Alaves’s habit of conceding (37 goals against). Four of the last six meetings have seen at least three goals. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Season Form & Standings
Villarreal have been one of the division’s most consistent sides, sitting fourth with 54 points from 27 games (63% win rate). Alaves, meanwhile, are down in 16th, just four points clear of the drop, having won only 7 of their 27 matches. Villarreal boast a +18 goal difference, while Alaves’s is a worrying -12.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 4 | 27 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 54 |
| Alaves | 16 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 27 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Lucas Boye (Alaves): 9 goals, 1 assist in 17 starts; 7.3 xG suggests he slightly overperforms his chances — responsible for over a third of his team’s goals.
- Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal): 9 goals, 4 assists, 29 big chance assists; a creative midfield presence who can score and supply.
- Nicolas Pepe (Villarreal): 4 assists, 50% shot accuracy, 81.9% pass completion — outstanding for a forward, and 35 big chance assists shows his vision.
- Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal): 8 goals, 4 assists in 16 starts — high involvement rate and often decisive in tight games.
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
Villarreal have enjoyed the upper hand most recently, winning two of the last three, including a convincing 3-1 home victory earlier this season.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10/01/26 | Villarreal 3-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| 08/03/25 | Alaves 1-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| 09/11/24 | Villarreal 3-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| 10/02/24 | Alaves 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| 22/10/23 | Villarreal 1-1 Alaves | La Liga |
Conclusion
Will Villarreal’s multi-pronged attack prove too much for an Alaves side heavily reliant on Lucas Boye? With Villarreal’s impressive away record and consistent goal threat, the value looks to be backing the visitors for the win at 6/5 with Bet365 (45.5%). If Alaves are to cause an upset, their talisman Boye will almost certainly be at the heart of it.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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