Stuttgart travel to face Mainz in a clash that pits one of the Bundesliga’s most enterprising attacks against a side fighting to escape the lower reaches of the table.
With Stuttgart looking to consolidate their position in the top four and Mainz searching for momentum, expect a contest shaped by recent form and a lopsided head-to-head record. Kick-off is at 14:30 on Saturday 7 March at the MEWA Arena.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Stuttgart’s clear attacking superiority and Mainz’s struggles in front of goal, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in backing Stuttgart to win, given their consistent output and strong recent form, while a low-scoring game also looks a realistic prospect.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart to Win | 6/5 @ Betfair (45.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Stuttgart have won 8 of the last 15 meetings with Mainz and are 10 places higher in the table. Their attack has produced 48 goals this season—21 more than Mainz—and they boast much better shot and pass accuracy. Mainz, by contrast, have scored just 27 times and missed nearly as many big chances as they’ve created. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 13/10 @ Bet365 (43.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Mainz’s matches average just over 2.7 goals, but their XG is a lowly 12.21 and they struggle to convert chances. While Stuttgart are prolific, their last meeting ended 2-1 and Mainz will likely try to keep it tight at home to grind out a result. Under 2.5 has value given Mainz’s attacking inefficiency and the importance of the points at stake. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Season Form & Standings
Stuttgart’s win percentage stands at 58%, reinforcing their credentials as a top-four contender. Mainz, meanwhile, are embroiled in a relegation scrap with just a 21% win rate and the joint third-worst defence in the league by goals conceded.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart | 4 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 32 | +16 | 46 |
| Mainz | 14 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 23 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Deniz Undav (Stuttgart): 14 league goals, scoring in each of his last three outings. He’s averaging over 2 shots inside the box per game recently, and his overall shot accuracy is a respectable 38.5%. Undav is Stuttgart’s go-to threat and is in relentless form.
- Ermedin Demirovic (Stuttgart): 7 goals, 2 assists, and 50% shot accuracy. He’s also regularly setting up team-mates with big-chance assists and is involved inside the penalty area.
- Sheraldo Becker (Mainz): 1 goal in 4 matches since his arrival, and matches Undav’s shot accuracy. Becker is responsible for a large share of Mainz’s attacking output, but his side’s overall chance conversion is a concern.
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
Stuttgart have had the upper hand in recent history, winning four of the last six encounters and outscoring Mainz 15 to 9 across the past six matchups.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26/10/25 | Stuttgart 2-1 Mainz | Bundesliga |
| 25/01/25 | Mainz 2-0 Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 31/08/24 | Stuttgart 3-3 Mainz | Bundesliga |
| 11/02/24 | Stuttgart 3-1 Mainz | Bundesliga |
| 16/09/23 | Mainz 1-3 Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 21/05/23 | Mainz 1-4 Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
Will Stuttgart’s Attack Prove Too Much?
Stuttgart’s firepower, led by Undav and Demirovic, looks a cut above Mainz’s faltering frontline. With Stuttgart boasting a much higher pass accuracy (84.6% to Mainz’s 74.6%) and a +16 goal difference, there’s every reason to think they’ll get the result here. Backing Stuttgart at 6/5 (45.5%) with Betfair looks a strong play for punters seeking value.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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