Manchester United head to the Hill Dickinson Stadium for the first time on Monday evening sitting fourth, but with just four clean sheets all season and a habit of conceding soft goals. Everton, meanwhile, are quietly climbing the Premier League table with a defence that’s far more robust than their -1 goal difference might suggest.
Best Bets & Predictions
United’s attack is miles ahead on the numbers — 47 goals from 416 shots, 1.81 goals per game, and a shot accuracy of nearly 48%. But their back line is leaky, conceding 1.42 per match and keeping just 4 clean sheets in 26. Everton, by contrast, are the league’s mid-table grinders: 1.12 goals scored, 1.15 conceded per game, and a stingy 9 clean sheets. This is the sort of clash where the bookies side with the bigger name, but the value is in the margins. I’m backing Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 @ Bet365 (47.6%), and in the player markets, Bruno Fernandes to assist at 11/4 @ Bet365 (26.7%) looks a touch big given his numbers.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why I’m Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goal after 77:59 | 5/6 @ Bet365 (54.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Late goals have been a feature of Man Utd games recently, with at least one goal scored in the final half hour in each of their last seven game sand a total of seven goals scored after the 80 minute mark in their last four. Everton have also scored in the last ten minutes in two of their last three. |
| Bruno Fernandes to Assist Anytime | 11/4 @ Bet365 (26.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Bruno averages 0.52 assists per game (12 in 23) — that’s a 52% per-game rate. The 11/4 (26.7% implied) is simply too big for a player with this creative output, especially with United’s volume of shots. Worth a nibble at this price. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
How both teams go into Everton vs Man Utd
Everton have enjoyed a solid first season at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. There have been flashes of brilliance for the Toffees, particularly from on loan Manchester City man Jack Grealish who has now been ruled out for the season. Regardless, the club will be happy to see themselves in eighth place of the table at this stage. European qualification is not yet out of the question either, with the Merseysiders sat on 37 points from 26 games.
An unexpected home defeat to Bournemouth last time out will have left a bitter taste in the mouth for the Everton faithful, particularly after it came on the back of a five game unbeaten run. Consistency is still not quite there for David Moyes and his side, but they have proven difficult to beat this year and indeed they ran out 0-1 winners at Old Trafford in the reverse of this fixture back in November.
Manchester United’s form has improved dramatically since Michael Carrick was installed has interim head coach. The Red Devils had actually gone three games unbeaten in the Premier League when they sacked previous boss Ruben Amorim, but thanks to Carrick’s good performance so far that unbeaten run has now been extended to nine games.
After wins over Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur, Carrick has put himself into a strong position to be given the job on a more permanent basis and has hauled the Red Devils into the top four. While chasing down the Gunners for the title is beyond them at this stage, Champions League football seems a very realistic target at this stage, which is no mean feat given that United finished as low as 16th last season.
Everton team news
Jack Grealish will miss the rest of the season for Everton. Defender Jake O’Brien is currently suspended.
Man Utd team news
Patrick Dorgu will miss out for Manchester United but Mason Mount and Matthijs de Ligt could return from injury.
Season Form & Standings
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 4th | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 47 | 37 | +10 | 45 |
| Everton | 8th | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 37 |
Head-to-Head
Recent Meetings
United have dominated this fixture, but Everton did win the reverse 1-0 at Old Trafford earlier this season. Goals are usually on the menu — the last six have averaged 2.7 per game.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24/11/25 | Manchester United 0-1 Everton | Premier League |
| 22/02/25 | Everton 2-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
| 01/12/24 | Manchester United 4-0 Everton | Premier League |
| 09/03/24 | Manchester United 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
| 26/11/23 | Everton 0-3 Manchester United | Premier League |
| 08/04/23 | Manchester United 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
Conclusion
This is a classic “styles make fights” match: United have the firepower but leak goals, Everton are disciplined but can’t finish. I fancy a late goal looking at recent matches involving these sides, and if you want a player angle, Bruno Fernandes to assist at 11/4 is worth a look. Don’t expect a thriller, but the value is in a tight, tactical affair rather than a goalfest.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
