Chelsea welcome relegation near-certs Burnley to Stamford Bridge on Saturday at 3pm. The Clarets have shipped 51 goals in 26 games while Chelsea, for all their flaws, have been ruthless against teams in the Premier League drop zone. If Burnley are going to spring a surprise, they’ll need a miracle at both ends of the pitch.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why I’m Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea to win to nil | 21/20 @ BetMGM (48.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Burnley score just 1.08 per game and Chelsea keep a clean sheet in 34.6% of matches. Burnley have failed to score in 8 of 26. Chelsea’s defence is much tighter than most they face. 21/20 implies 48.8% but I rate the true chance closer to 55%. |
| Cole Palmer to assist anytime | 19/10 @ BetMGM (34.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Palmer has been in fine form lately with five goals and three assists in his last six Chelsea games. Burnley allow 1.96 goals per game. Palmer’s creative numbers make 19/10 (34.5% implied) a touch of value for a player involved in most Chelsea attacks. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Chelsea vs Burnley odds
How both teams go into Chelsea vs Burnley
It’s been a strange old season at Stamford Bridge. While they’ve never really been title challengers, the Blues have always seemed to be very much in the race for Champions League football and yet despite that, they have made a managerial change in the dugout with Enzo Maresca replaced by former Strasbourg manager Liam Rosenior.
Since Rosenior’s arrival, Chelsea have remained unbeaten in the Premier League, only losing to Arsenal in the EFL Cup semi-final. In their last league outing, the Blues were held to a slightly unfortunate 2-2 draw with Leeds – a result that leaves them in fifth place in the league on 44 points. That’s just one behind Manchester United in fourth.
Burnley’s season hasn’t exactly gone to plan. Much like in their last Premier League stint under Vincent Kompany, the Clarets simply haven’t had the quality to compete this time around under Scott Parker and they currently occupy 19th place in the league, with nine points separating them from 17th placed Nottingham Forest who are hovering just above the drop zone.
No team has shipped more goals than the Lancashire side this season with a total of 51 from their 26 appearances and even though they were able to earn a rare three points in their last league game at Crystal Palace, they had to come from two goals down in order to do it. Confidence will have taken a further dent last weekend as they crashed out of the FA Cup with a 1-2 home defeat to League One Mansfield Town.
Season Form & Standings
Burnley are stuck in 19th on 18 points — that’s just 0.69 points per game and a full 8 points adrift of safety. Chelsea are 5th with 44 points, averaging 1.69 per game and firmly in the mix for Europe. The gap between these two is a chasm: 26 points and 14 places. Burnley’s form is as bleak as it gets (W4 D6 L16), while Chelsea’s W12 D8 L6 run is enough to keep them in the top five. Burnley’s last five: LDLLD. Chelsea: WDWWL. The numbers say it all.
Chelsea team news
Levi Colwill, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Filip Jorgensen and Dario Essugo are all injured. Mykhailo Mudryk is serving a long-term suspension. Marc Cucurella and Romeo Lavia will be assessed before the game after missing recent matches.
Burnley team news
Zeki Amdouni, Axel Tuanzebe, Josh Cullen, Jordan Beyer, Connor Roberts and Mike Tresor continue to miss out with long-term injuries for Burnley.
Season form and standings
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 5th | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 47 | 30 | +17 | 44 |
| Burnley | 19th | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 51 | -23 | 18 |
Head-to-Head
Recent Meetings
Chelsea have dominated this fixture: nine wins in the last 13, including a 2-0 win at Turf Moor earlier this season. You have to go back to 2017 to find the last time that the Clarets were able to beat the Blues.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22/11/25 | Burnley 0-2 Chelsea | Premier League |
| 30/03/24 | Chelsea 2-2 Burnley | Premier League |
| 07/10/23 | Burnley 1-4 Chelsea | Premier League |
| 05/03/22 | Burnley 0-4 Chelsea | Premier League |
| 06/11/21 | Chelsea 1-1 Burnley | Premier League |
| 31/01/21 | Chelsea 2-0 Burnley | Premier League |
Conclusion
Burnley’s defence is the worst in the league and Chelsea have the attacking quality to punish them. The Blues’ clean sheet rate, Burnley’s lack of firepower, and the head-to-head record all point one way. I’m on Chelsea to win to nil @ 21/20 with BetMGM as the main bet, and Cole Palmer to provide an assist at 19/10 if you want a player angle. If Chelsea turn up, this could be another routine win – but at these prices, keep your stakes sensible and avoid the short odds.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
