Two sides desperate for points at the wrong end of the table meet as Augsburg host Heidenheim in a Bundesliga relegation six-pointer.
The head-to-head history suggests goals could be on the cards, with both clubs conceding heavily this term. Kick-off is at 14:30 on Sunday 15 February at the WWK Arena, where Augsburg’s greater attacking craft faces off against a Heidenheim side fighting for survival.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on recent form, defensive records and head-to-head stats, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in Augsburg to win, given their superior creativity, home advantage and Heidenheim’s struggles away from home and at the back. There’s also a case for expecting goals, while Heidenheim’s discipline issues hint at a potential card-heavy contest.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg to Win | 10/11 @ Betfred (52.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We are backing Augsburg to win because they have scored more goals, created far more chances, and face a Heidenheim side with the league’s worst defensive record (47 conceded in 21). Augsburg have also won three of the last five H2Hs, and Heidenheim have picked up just three wins all season. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 8/11 @ Bet365 (57.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | There could be value here due to both teams’ leaky defences and a head-to-head pattern that has delivered 18 goals in their last five meetings. Augsburg leak nearly two per game, Heidenheim even more; both are more effective going forward than holding leads. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Season Form & Standings
Augsburg have slipped to 13th after a rough patch, while Heidenheim remain rooted to the bottom and in urgent need of points. Augsburg’s -15 goal difference is poor, but Heidenheim’s -28 is the worst in the league, a reflection of their porous defence. Both sides have found wins hard to come by, but Heidenheim’s 14 defeats in 21 games stand out.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | 13 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 22 |
| Heidenheim | 18 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 47 | -28 | 13 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Mert Komur (Augsburg): Augsburg’s most efficient shooter (47.6% accuracy) and a creative spark with 3 assists and 18 big chance assists. He averages an assist or big chance every 57 minutes.
- Han Noah Massengo (Augsburg): Key in build-up play, leading the team for big chance assists (19). His set-piece delivery could trouble Heidenheim’s back line.
- Stefan Schimmer (Heidenheim): Top scorer for Heidenheim (5 goals), responsible for over a quarter of their total. His 10 big chance assists show he’s the focal point for shots and creativity.
- Arijon Ibrahimovic (Heidenheim): Exceptional at carving open chances, with 39 big chance assists but just 2 assists—his creativity is clear, but end product depends on teammates taking their opportunities.
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
These two sides have shared plenty of goals across their recent meetings, with Augsburg winning three of the last five and Heidenheim two. There has not been a single draw, and the last five encounters have yielded an even split of 9 goals each.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27/09/25 | Heidenheim 2-1 Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 25/01/25 | Augsburg 2-1 Heidenheim | Bundesliga |
| 01/09/24 | Heidenheim 4-0 Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 09/03/24 | Augsburg 1-0 Heidenheim | Bundesliga |
| 22/10/23 | Heidenheim 2-5 Augsburg | Bundesliga |
Conclusion: Where’s the Value?
Will Augsburg’s creative edge finally translate into a crucial home win, or can Heidenheim’s direct style spring a surprise? With both teams struggling at the back but capable going forward, the stats point to goals and potential for drama. Our top pick is Augsburg to win at 10/11 with Betfred (52.4%), but there could be further value in the goals markets if the trend of open contests continues.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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