“We were one incredible strike away from a good result. I think we were unlucky at half-time that we were 1-0 down. It was the only chance, the only moment we conceded.”
Those were the words of Arne Slot after Liverpool’s 2-2 draw with Fulham on Sunday. It isn’t the first time the Dutchman has mentioned bad luck being responsible for dropped points this term. It probably won’t be the last time either.
Liverpool find themselves fourth in the Premier League right now, three points ahead of Chelsea and Manchester United. While those two teams are in the market for new managers right now, Liverpool find themselves on an eight match unbeaten run in the league. Only Arsenal (15) and Aston Villa (12) have taken more points than Liverpool’s 11 across the past five games.
On one hand, this run of form vindicates Liverpool’s decision to keep faith with Slot — being able to turn things around after six defeats in seven at one point. But question marks still remain over the 47-year-old.
Luck on Liverpool’s side
After all, the fixture list has been kind to Liverpool over this period. The Reds have come up against West Ham United, Sunderland, Leeds United (twice), Brighton and Hove Albion, Tottenham Hotspur, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Fulham. They eked out 2-0 wins over West Ham and Brighton, and 2-1 wins against Tottenham and Wolves.
The only convincing win during this period was against West Ham. And even that required a 92nd-minute Cody Gakpo goal to settle the tie. In the other games, Liverpool had luck come to their rescue.
Sunderland’s deflected goal was countered by Liverpool’s own deflected equaliser. The Reds showed more attacking threat, but were limited largely to pot-shots from distance. It wasn’t as though they missed chance after chance but got their just rewards in the end.
Against Leeds, luck favoured the Reds initially with Joe Rodon setting up Hugo Ekitike. The Frenchman then doubled the lead having been in an offside position during the build-up without interfering with play. It was a perfectly good goal but the events leading up to it are the very definition of good luck.
Then there was bad luck as the hosts claimed a 3-3 draw late on. The focus in the aftermath was Liverpool’s misfortune having thrown away a 2-0 lead and a 3-2 advantage.
Against Brighton, Liverpool had luck on their side on their way to keeping a clean sheet, with Alisson bailing them out and Diego Gomez missing an opportunity from close range. On another day, that game finishes as a draw.
Tottenham hit the woodwork on the way to a 2-1 loss against Liverpool. Fulham clipped the bar during the 2-2 draw. And, while Slot feels his team were unlucky at Craven Cottage, there’s an argument to be made that the game balanced out.
Mixed luck vs Fulham
Fulham scored a fantastic opening goal. It was well-worked and Harry Wilson’s finish was emphatic and ruthless.
Fulham waited for their moment and capitalised. Was it against the run of play? Yes. But there are no rules in football to say you need to be dominant to deserve a goal. Fulham controlled Liverpool and then picked their moment to strike.
The Cottagers almost did the same in the second half too when Raul Jimenez raced clear, but he was thwarted by Alisson. The ricochet fell to Wilson who attempted to clip the ball in, only for it to kiss the crossbar. That would’ve been viewed as a suckerpunch but it was Fulham’s game plan. Contain Liverpool and then hit them on the break.
The Reds then had fortune on their side. Joachim Anderson missed his clearance in the lead-up to the Cody Gakpo goal in the 94th minute. Jeremie Frimpong’s cross was good, but should’ve been dealt with at the near post. The centre-back missed the ball and it caught out his teammates, allowing Gakpo to bundle the ball over the line. That was good luck.
Fulham then had their own good luck when Harrison Reed scored a goal-of-the-season contender.
“We brought Gomez in because he is very good in the air, but they didn’t take it long,” Slot said.
“They took it short, and it was an incredible strike. It is not for the first time this season that we have conceded in the final seconds of the game.”
Bad luck or bad game management?
Liverpool conceded in the 97th minute to Crystal Palace and the 95th minute against Chelsea. Can it really be bad luck when it keeps happening? Is it simply just bad game management?
For example, Liverpool set up to defend a long throw against Fulham only for the hosts to play short and have acres of space on the edge of the area. Reed’s goal perfectly encapsulates Liverpool’s approach recently.
Slot’s side conceded 10 goals in three games against Manchester City, Nottingham Forest and PSV. Slot switched things up after that run. He adopted a safety first approach to games, playing Gomez at right-back and using Dominik Szoboszlai at right-wing.
While defensive performances have improved, the quality of opposition needs to be taken into account. The eight-game unbeaten run only includes two teams in the top 10. And four matches have come against sides in the bottom five.
For a little more context, the Reds have an Expected Goals Against average of 0.84 across this run of eight games. So they’re giving up basically a goal a game against some of the worst teams in the Premier League. That figure has dropped from earlier in the season but that’s expected given the change to the system and the fixture list.
The idea that Liverpool are better defensively but simply unlucky right now isn’t the truth. With more difficult games on the horizon for the defending champions, we’ll soon see whether or not Slot has a solution to this. Or whether it’s been a false dawn.