Liverpool return to Anfield to face Leeds United in a fixture that has long favoured the hosts, but recent results suggest an unpredictable edge.
Thursday’s clash sees Liverpool looking to consolidate their top-four position, while Leeds are desperate to pull away from the bottom end of the Premier League table. Kick-off brings together two sides with contrasting approaches: Liverpool’s dominance in possession and creative flair up against a Leeds team reliant on direct play and set-piece threats.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Liverpool’s home dominance, Leeds’ defensive vulnerabilities, and recent head-to-head trends, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re especially confident in Liverpool to win, but also see value in other attacking markets given both sides’ goal output.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to Win | 13/20 @ Bet365 (60.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Liverpool’s dominant home form at Anfield makes them clear favourites. As of 29/12/2025, Liverpool has a strong home record of 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. In contrast, Leeds United has struggled significantly on the road, securing only 5 points from 8 away matches (1W, 2D, 6L) . Despite a historical upset in 2022, the current season’s data, showing Liverpool’s home strength against Leeds’ away weakness, points decisively to a comfortable home victory. |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Anytime Goalscorer | 3/1 @ Paddy Power (25.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s current form and Liverpool’s defensive frailties make him a strong scoring candidate. Calvert-Lewin has scored 8 goals in 15 matches this season , with an Expected Goals (xG) of 6.32, indicating high-quality chances . Crucially, Liverpool has conceded 11 goals from set pieces this season , a significant weakness. Given Calvert-Lewin’s aerial threat and the fact he is on a potential seven-game scoring streak , he is perfectly positioned to exploit Liverpool’s vulnerability. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Liverpool vs Leeds match odds
How both teams head into Liverpool vs Leeds
Liverpool’s 2025/2026 Premier League season has been a mixed campaign, leaving them in 4th place with 32 points from 18 games (10W, 2D, 6L) . Their attack has been consistent, scoring 30 goals (1.67 per game), but their defence has been a concern, conceding 26 goals . This results in a modest +4 goal difference. Anfield remains a relative strength with 6 home wins . Despite their position, defensive vulnerabilities, particularly conceding 11 goals from set pieces , have hampered a stronger title challenge.
Leeds United’s return to the Premier League has been challenging, placing them 16th with 20 points from 18 games (5W, 5D, 8L) . Their defensive record is a major concern, having conceded 31 goals , resulting in a -7 goal difference. While they have shown resilience at home, securing 15 points , their away form is poor, with only 5 points from 8 matches . Key results include a recent 2-0 win over Crystal Palace. Their survival hopes hinge on improving their defensive solidity and translating home form into away points.
Liverpool team news
Liverpool faces a significant challenge due to AFCON 2025 and a growing injury list. Star forward Mohamed Salah has departed for the tournament with Egypt . Compounding this, the squad is dealing with injuries to key players, including Joe Gomez and Wataru Endo . The absence of Salah will force manager Arne Slot to rely on a heavily rotated attack, potentially impacting their goal-scoring output against Leeds.
Leeds team news
Leeds United faces Liverpool with a significant defensive concern as Joe Rodon is a major doubt after sustaining an ankle injury . Manager Daniel Farke suggested the defender will likely miss the match. Additionally, Sean Longstaff is out with a calf injury . While Leeds is not heavily impacted by AFCON 2025, these defensive and midfield absences, coupled with a long list of other injuries, severely limit Farke’s options for the challenging trip to Anfield.
Season Form & Standings
Liverpool remain in the top four with a positive goal difference, while Leeds are hovering just above the relegation zone, struggling defensively but still capable of scoring. Here’s how both sides stack up after 18 games:
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 4 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 32 |
| Leeds United | 16 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 20 |
Head-to-Head: Last 7 Meetings
Liverpool have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning four of the last seven meetings and outscoring Leeds 24-10. However, the last clash ended in a high-scoring draw, hinting that Leeds can trouble Liverpool’s backline.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 06/12/25 | Leeds United 3-3 Liverpool | Premier League |
| 17/04/23 | Leeds United 1-6 Liverpool | Premier League |
| 29/10/22 | Liverpool 1-2 Leeds United | Premier League |
| 23/02/22 | Liverpool 6-0 Leeds United | Premier League |
| 12/09/21 | Leeds United 0-3 Liverpool | Premier League |
| 19/04/21 | Leeds United 1-1 Liverpool | Premier League |
| 12/09/20 | Liverpool 4-3 Leeds United | Premier League |
Conclusion
Will Liverpool’s midfield mastery and creative edge break down a Leeds side that always carries a threat through Calvert-Lewin? With recent head-to-heads producing goals galore and both teams’ defensive records shaky, all signs point to another high-scoring contest. Our top selection remains Liverpool to win at 13/20 @ Bet365 (60.6%), but value is strong on attacking props too. Don’t miss the chance to combine picks for bigger returns.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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