Introduction
The Netherlands host Lithuania in a European qualifier that pits the group leaders against a side still searching for their first win. Taking place in the Netherlands on 17 November 2025, this contest looks on paper like a mismatch, with the Dutch boasting a dominant record this campaign. Lithuania, meanwhile, arrive as major underdogs having struggled at both ends of the pitch during this qualifying effort. With the Dutch attack in full flow and defensive solidity to match, all eyes are on whether the visitors can spring a surprise – or simply keep the scoreline respectable.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on overwhelming attacking and defensive stats, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in backing the Netherlands for a comprehensive victory, with the data pointing to goals and a potential clean sheet.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands to Win to Nil | 8/15 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Dutch have 4 clean sheets in 7; Lithuania average less than 1 goal per game. |
| Memphis Depay to Score Anytime | 9/4 @ Paddy Power | ⭐⭐⭐ | Depay has 8 goals in 7, outperforming xG; Lithuania have conceded 11 in 7. |
| Over 3.5 Netherlands Goals | 10/11 @ SkyBet | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Dutch average 3.3 goals per game, Lithuania allow nearly 2 per match. |
| Netherlands -2 Handicap | 8/15 @ Betfred | ⭐⭐⭐ | Dutch have beaten Lithuania before by 2+; huge gulf in quality. |
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Our approach: Start with Netherlands to win to nil, add Depay to score for accumulator potential.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Season Form & Standings
2025/26 season to date: The Netherlands have dominated the group with an unbeaten record, boasting a +19 goal difference and the best attack and defence. Lithuania remain winless, struggling to convert draws into victories.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 17 |
| Lithuania | 4 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
Potential Match-Winners
Netherlands: Memphis Depay
Depay leads the Dutch with 8 goals in just 7 games, and his shooting volume and set-piece threat make him a constant danger. He’s averaging more than a goal per game and outpaces his xG, showing clinical finishing.
Netherlands: Cody Gakpo
Gakpo’s movement and creativity have helped the Netherlands rack up 15 assists this campaign. He’s a key link in a forward line that’s produced plenty of goals in the last seven qualifiers.
Lithuania: Gytis Paulauskas
Lithuania’s forward line has struggled, but Paulauskas is one to watch for any chance of a reply. Lithuania have managed just 6 goals in 7 games, so any attacking spark will likely come from him or the midfield.
Head-to-Head
Only one recent meeting between these sides, which ended in a narrow Dutch win. Lithuania were able to find the net twice at home but ultimately fell short against the more clinical visitors.
Last 1 Meeting
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 07/09/25 | Lithuania 2-3 Netherlands | European Qualifier |
Conclusion
Will Lithuania find a way through this dominant Dutch side, or will Netherlands’ relentless attack and defensive structure prove too much? With the home side’s numbers pointing to a convincing win, backing Netherlands to win to nil with Bet365 stands out as the top selection.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.