Saturday at the London Stadium sees West Ham United desperate to build on a rare positive result as they welcome Burnley for a crunch clash between two sides languishing near the foot of the Premier League.
The 3:00 PM kick-off carries huge significance: West Ham finally ended their slide with a 3-1 win over Newcastle last time out, while Burnley arrive still searching for answers after a 2-0 home defeat to Arsenal. With only three points separating these teams, momentum and survival hopes hang in the balance in this key encounter.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on recent form, underlying stats, and the head-to-head record, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in West Ham to win, given their stronger attacking metrics and home advantage.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham to Win | 19/20 @ Betfair (51.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | West Ham will be looking to build on their win last weekend and continue the good start to Nuno Espirito Santo’s spell in charge of the club. Burnley have lost three of their last five games in the Premier League, conceding 11 goals in that time, whilst West Ham have averaged a goal a game over the same period. West Ham have solid home xG and shots edge while Burnley overperforming goals and have created less chances than the Hammers. |
| Jarrod Bowen Anytime Scorer | 7/4 @ Bet365 (36.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Burnley have conceded an average of three goals a game on the road this season. Jarrod Bowen remains West Ham’s main goal threat, scoring three goals already this season. Bowen has had 11 shots on target this season, with a shot accuracy of 64.71% and he’ll be used as West Ham’s main outlet in the final third, giving him plenty of chances to test a wobbly Burnley defence. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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West Ham vs Burnley match odds
How both teams head into West Ham vs Burnley
West Ham have seen plenty of upheaval this season, with Graham Potter being replaced by Nuno Espirito Santo following a horrible start to the campaign. That poor run of form saw West Ham win just one of their first nine games and picking up just four points in that period. The arrival of Santo has seemed to spark the Hammers back to life, with a 3-1 victory over Newcastle giving them their first victory since the end of August. Prior to that result, West Ham had only scored three goals in six games and they’ll be hoping their goalscoring touch has returned.
Burnley have shown some real signs of life at points this season, pushing Liverpool and Man Utd all the way (although ultimately losing) and picking up wins over Wolves and Leeds in recent weeks. They fell, like many others this season, to Arsenal last weekend, a result that leaves them one position and three points above West Ham in the relegation zone. Their form away from home has been the real issues for the Clarets, where they’ve lost four of their five games this season, conceding 15 times.
West Ham team news
West Ham have a few players absent through injury, with Oliver Scarles, George Earthy and Niclas Fullkrug all missing out this weekend. There are also doubts over Konstantinos Mavropanos, with it being unclear when he will be back fit.
Burnley team news
Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts and Jordan Beyer are all long term absentees for Burnley, with none of the three expected back this side of Christmas.
Season Form & Standings
Both clubs are fighting for points near the bottom. Burnley sit 17th with 10 points (W3 D1 L6), just ahead of 18th-placed West Ham on 7 points (W2 D1 L7). West Ham’s negative goal difference (-11) underscores defensive frailties, while Burnley have only fared slightly better (-7). Recent form shows West Ham breaking a losing streak, while Burnley continue to leak goals.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 17 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 10 |
| West Ham United | 18 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 7 |
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between West Ham and Burnley have been tightly contested, with both sides claiming wins and four draws in their last 14 encounters. Burnley actually edge the goal count 18-16 in that span, but West Ham have had the upper hand lately, including a draw and a win in the last two.
Last 10 Meetings
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10/03/24 | West Ham 2-2 Burnley | Premier League |
| 25/11/23 | Burnley 1-2 West Ham | Premier League |
| 17/04/22 | West Ham 1-1 Burnley | Premier League |
| 12/12/21 | Burnley 0-0 West Ham | Premier League |
| 03/05/21 | Burnley 1-2 West Ham | Premier League |
| 16/01/21 | West Ham 1-0 Burnley | Premier League |
| 08/07/20 | West Ham 0-1 Burnley | Premier League |
| 09/11/19 | Burnley 3-0 West Ham | Premier League |
| 30/12/18 | Burnley 2-0 West Ham | Premier League |
| 03/11/18 | West Ham 4-2 Burnley | Premier League |
Conclusion
Will West Ham United turn improved underlying numbers into points, or can Burnley keep riding their clinical finishing? With both teams needing a result and neither defence convincing, this could be a hard-fought, high-scoring affair. Our money is on West Ham to edge it at 19/20 with Betfair (51.3% implied), but savvy punters should also consider goals markets.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.