Newcastle United welcome Benfica to St James’ Park in a European group stage encounter that sees two sides in contrasting early-season form. The Magpies have started brightly, while Benfica—despite boasting a creative edge—have struggled for results. Kick-off is set for 8:00 PM, and this match-up promises a fascinating tactical contrast: Newcastle’s clinical finishing against Benfica’s relentless attacking volume and creative flair from deep, led by their standout defender Samuel Elias Dahl.
Best bets & predictions
Based on Newcastle’s ruthless shot conversion and Benfica’s high-volume, low-yield attack, our top betting recommendations focus on the value of a Newcastle win, goals to flow, and a standout player pick. We’re particularly confident in backing Newcastle to win, given their sharp finishing and home advantage.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrik Aursnes 2+ fouls committed | 11/5 @ Bet365 (31.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Expect a typical Jose Mourinho performance with plenty of fouls as they try and upset Newcastle’s rhythm and prevent attacks. Newcastle have the most fouled player in the league over the last few years in Bruno Guimaraes. Expect a high foul count for both teams |
| Nick Woltemade Anytime Goalscorer | 11/10 @ Bet365 (47.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Backing Newcastle’s sharpest striker against a leaky Benfica defence. |
Our approach: Start with Newcastle to win, add Over 2.5 Goals for accumulator potential.
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Odds correct at the time of writing.
How both teams go into Newcastle vs Benfica
Newcastle head into Tuesday’s clash eager to build momentum in Europe, with a tough run of fixtures ahead that includes meetings with Athletic Club, Marseille, Bayer Leverkusen, PSV Eindhoven, and Paris Saint-Germain. A win here would mark their first back-to-back victories in continental competition since February 2003, a milestone Eddie Howe’s side will be keen to reach.
However, they’ll need to bounce back quickly from Saturday’s 2-1 defeat to Brighton, a result that halted their brief winning streak and left them sitting mid-table in the Premier League, currently in 12th place.
Benfica returned to winning ways last time out with a comfortable 2-0 triumph over Chaves, as Vangelis Pavlidis struck in both halves to guide the Eagles into the next round of the Taca de Portugal.
That result snapped a brief two-game winless run and gave Jose Mourinho his third victory since taking charge on September 19. Under the experienced Portuguese manager, Benfica have shown signs of steady improvement, posting a record of three wins, two draws, and one defeat across all competitions.
Newcastle team news
Eddie Howe faces another defensive reshuffle on Tuesday, with both of his first-choice full-backs unavailable. Lewis Hall is still recovering from a hamstring issue, while Tino Livramento’s knee injury is expected to keep him out for around two months.
That means Dan Burn should continue at left-back, with Kieran Trippier likely to captain the side from the right. At centre-back, Fabian Schar could be recalled after missing the last few matches, potentially breaking up the recent partnership of Sven Botman and Malick Thiaw.
Benfica team news
Benfica are expected to make a few key changes for their midweek clash. Anatoliy Trubin should reclaim his spot between the posts, while veteran defender Nicolás Otamendi is set to reunite with António Silva at the heart of defence. In midfield, Richard Rios is likely to return after being rested following the international break.
Up front, Vangelis Pavlidis will look to maintain his excellent form, having scored four goals in his last four outings, including one in the Champions League. However, Roger Schmidt remains without Alexander Bah and Manu Silva, who are both recovering from serious knee injuries, while Bruma continues his spell on the sidelines with an Achilles problem.
Season Form & Standings
2025/26 season to date: Newcastle have made a confident start, sitting 11th with three points from two games and a positive goal difference. Benfica, despite their reputation, have yet to register a point after two matches. Newcastle’s 50% win rate is underpinned by clinical finishing, while Benfica’s 0% reflects their issues converting chances into results.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3 |
| Benfica | 33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Nick Woltemade (Newcastle): Main striker, clinical with a strong shot-on-target rate, priced at 11/10 @ Bet365 (47.6%) for anytime goalscorer—backed to make the difference after 4 league goals this term.
- Anthony Gordon (Newcastle): Direct attacker who creates space and wins fouls, adds extra threat down the flank.
- Samuel Elias Dahl (Benfica): A defender with a playmaker’s numbers—12 key passes, 82.8% pass accuracy. Central to Benfica’s creativity from the back.
- Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica): Poacher who benefits from Dahl’s creativity; needs to convert more of Benfica’s many chances.
Conclusion
Will Newcastle’s clinical finishing outshine Benfica’s creative volume? With home advantage, sharp conversion rates, and a misfiring opponent, the Magpies look primed to take all three points, but our top selection is from the player fouls market. Get behind Fredrik Aursnes to commit 2+ fouls at 11/5.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.