Italy travel to the A. Le Coq Arena to take on Estonia in a key battle in Group I as both nations battle for World Cup qualification.
The match, scheduled for a 19:45 kick off, will be the ninth meeting between the two nations and is one that Italy will be desperate to win after falling six points behind Norway at the top of their qualifying group.
Best bets and predictions
Italy come into this game as heavy favourites and this should be a game that they are winning, despite being away from home. We’re confident that Gennaro Gattuso’s side will come out on top but we’re delving into the handicap market to add some value to the selection.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy -3 | 29/20 @ BetMGM (40.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Italy desperately need a victory in this encounter as they currently sit in second place in Group I and sit six points behind Norway, albeit with a game in hand. Italy have scored 15 goals in their last five games, scoring three or more goals against Germany, Israel and, opponents this weekend, Estonia. With so much on the line for Italy, we’re predicting that they will pick up a comfortable win and put the pressure on Norway at the top of the group. |
| Correct Score – Italy 4-0 | 7/1 @ Bet365 (12.5%) | ⭐⭐ | As mentioned above, Italy are in a rich vein of goalscoring form and have extra motivation to win this tie and close the gap at the top of Group I. Estonia have conceded 11 goals in their last five games and scored just four, with three of those coming in a win over minnows, Moldova. This boosted price from Bet365 represents real value in a match that Italy will want to stamp their authority on. |
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How both teams head into Estonia vs Italy
Estonia come into this game without a win in four, although they ended a run of three losses in a row with a 0-0 draw with Andorra last time out. Those losses came against Israel, Norway and Italy and have left Estonia fourth in Group I, three points ahead of Moldova. Estonia have only picked up two wins in their last 10 matches and their chances of changing that this weekend look fairly slim.
Italy have won three in a row, picking up victories over Moldova, Estonia and Israel, scoring 12 goals in the process. Their previous result was a disappointing 3-0 loss to Norway and has put them on the back foot from the off. A victory in this encounter would leave Italy three points behind Norway in the group, with an all important clash with their rivals at the top of Group I coming up in November.
World Cup qualifying standings
| Team (Group I) | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 13 | +8 | 3 |
| Team (Group I) | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 9 |
Estonia team news
Estonia captain, Karol Mets should win his 101st cap for his nation in this encounter, whilst Karel Mustmaa and Marten-Chris Paalberg could win their first caps. There are no players in the Estonia squad that currently ply their trade in England but Markus Poom, son of ex-Arsenal goalkeeper Mart Poom, could line up in midfield.
Italy team news
There are only five players in the Italy squad that have won 40 or more caps, with Gennaro Gattuso bringing plenty of youth into the Italian set up. Gianluigi Donnarumma, Guglielomo Vicario, Destiny Udogie, Riccardo Calafiori, Diego Coppola and Sandro Tonali are the player representing the Premier League.
Head to head: Last 5 meetings
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | Italy 5-0 Estonia | World Cup qualifying |
| 11/11/2020 | Italy 4-0 Estonia | Friendly |
| 03/06/2011 | Italy 3-0 Estonia | European Championship qualifying |
| 03/09/2010 | Estonia 1-2 Italy | European Championship qualifying |
| 24/03/1995 | Italy 4-1 Estonia | European Championship qualifying |
Conclusion
Italy head into this contest as favourites and have a wealth of talent across the squad, whilst Estonia lack the big names in their set up. We can’t see Italy falling into a trap here and our top tip is to back Italy to win with a -3 handicap at 29/20 with BetMGM.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.