The Premier League is home to some of the best finishers in the world.
Alexander Isak, Erling Haaland and Mo Salah all call England’s top-flight home, scoring goals for fun. But what actually classes a player as a good finisher?
There are a lot of metrics you can use, including shot accuracy, conversion rate and simply goals. But we’re going down a different route for this one.
Here, we’re looking at the best finishers in terms of where they place their shots — and the impact it has on their goalscoring chances. To do that, we’ve looked at the difference between a player’s Expected Goals on Target (xGOT) and Expected Goals (xG), to rank the top rank finishers.
Expected Goals on Target measures the chance of a player after they’ve taken the shot, based on where in the goalmouth it has been placed. So the higher a player’s xGOT, the better their finish. Marking xGOT against xG — a player’s chance of scoring before the shot based on factors including position and distance from goal — we can determine who is enhancing their goalscoring prospects with their accuracy.
Who are the best finishers in the Premier League right now?
Here is our list of the Premier League’s best finishers, based on the difference between their xGOT and xG — with a minimum of five shots taken.
| Player | Club | xG | xGOT | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jurrien Timber | Arsenal | 1.2 | 2.45 | 1.25 |
| Jarrod Bowen | West Ham | 0.67 | 1.71 | 1.04 |
| Richarlison | Tottenham | 1.64 | 2.59 | 0.95 |
| Moises Caicedo | Chelsea | 0.43 | 1.29 | 0.86 |
| Harry Wilson | Fulham | 0.47 | 1.29 | 0.82 |
| Jaidon Anthony | Burnley | 2.06 | 2.86 | 0.8 |
| Callum Wilson | West Ham | 1.09 | 1.82 | 0.73 |
| Ryan Gravenberch | Liverpool | 0.32 | 1.02 | 0.7 |
| Neco Williams | Nottingham Forest | 0.2 | 0.84 | 0.64 |
| Mo Salah | Liverpool | 1.22 | 1.84 | 0.62 |
10. Mo Salah (Liverpool)
- xGOT to xG difference: +0.62
It’s no surprise to see Mo Salah on this list. But it may be a surprise to see him in 10th. And below some of the names to follow. Salah no longer has the goalscoring responsibilities at Liverpool, and that shows with his 1.22 xG in the league this season. There are 20 players with more in the Premier League. But he jumps up to 10th for xGOT, showing he is still to be feared.
9. Neco Williams (Nottingham Forest)
- xGOT to xG difference: +0.64
Perhaps not the Nottingham Forest representative you expected here. Neco Williams is one of four players to get onto this list having had five shots this season. But that’s not to take anything away from Williams. The Welshman has an impressive rise from his 0.2 xG to 0.84 xGOT, so maybe he should be shooting more!
8. Ryan Gravenberch (Liverpool)
- xGOT to xG difference: +0.7
Ryan Gravenberch has actually taken the same amount of shots as Salah in the league this season, tied on seven. His shots haven’t always been from the best position, posting only 0.32 xG — the second-lowest in the top 10. But the placement of his shots has seen Gravenberch post 1.02 xGOT — and impressive rise, especially considering he plays as a defensive midfielder.
7. Callum Wilson (West Ham)
- xGOT to xG difference: +0.73
West Ham United fans may be surprised to see Callum Wilson on this list. The Englishman has started just one of the Hammers’ five games so far this season, scoring one goal. Wilson has also only taken six shots, but he’s done well with his efforts. By the placement of his shots, Wilson has turned his 1.09 xG to 1.82 xGOT — the latter the 11th-most in the Premier League among players with at least five shots.
6. Jaidon Anthony (Burnley)
- xGOT to xG difference: +0.8
Jaidon Anthony has looked good this season, so it may not be a surprise to see him on this list. The Englishman has three of Burnley’s five league goals, and he’s helped by the volume of his shots. Anthony sits sixth in the Premier League for xG this season on 2.06, from 11 shots. He ranks second in the league for xGOT at 2.86, which earns him his spot on this list.
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5. Harry Wilson (Fulham)
- xGOT to xG difference: +0.82
Harry Wilson is another player to have just five shots this season, but he has only started two of Fulham’s three matches. Wilson is making the most of his time on the pitch, and the most of his shots. The Welshman has managed just 0.47 xG in the league this season, but he’s boosted that up to 1.29 xGOT by his shot placement.
4. Moises Caicedo (Chelsea)
- xGOT to xG difference: +0.86
Moises Caicedo isn’t known for scoring goals. And he’s not really known for taking shots either, with just five in the league this season. But, like everyone else in this list, he has been placing his shots very well. The Ecuadorean has turned his 0.43 xG into 1.29 xGOT this season, even scoring two goals along the way.
3. Richarlison (Tottenham)
- xGOT to xG difference: +0.95
Now this might be a name you’d expect. Richarlison started the season strongly for Tottenham Hotspur, looking a new player under Thomas Frank. Only two players have managed more shots in the Premier League this season than the Brazilian’s 13. And he’s been ruthless with them. Richarlison has posted 1.64 xG, which is just outside the top 10, but has bumped that up to 2.59 xGOT — the third-most in the Premier League.
2. Jarrod Bowen (West Ham)
- xGOT to xG difference: +1.04
Another West Ham representative — which may be a shock. But the man himself shouldn’t be. Jarrod Bowen is West Ham’s best, and most important, player. He looks to be their main source for goals, whether he’s playing through the middle or out wide. And it’s easy to see why. Bowen has taken his measly 0.67 xG and boosted it to 1.71 xGOT, the second-best difference in the Premier League this season.
1. Jurrien Timber (Arsenal)
- xGOT to xG difference: +1.25
Jurrien Timber has scored two goals this season, and they both came in the same match — the 5-0 thrashing of Leeds United. Those came from two of his five shots, but it turns out that the Dutchman is the clinical finisher. Timber’s five shots have garnered 1.2 xG in the league this season, which on its own is impressive for a full-back. But his 2.45 xGOT is even more impressive, among the best in the Premier League. And he’s in a league of his own right now for finishing, thanks to his +1.25 difference.
