The dust had barely settled on Nuno Espirto Santo’s reign at the City Ground before Nottingham Forest announced his replacement. Ange Postecoglou has succeeded the Portuguese boss on the Trent.
The Australian has been out of work since his Tottenham Hotspur departure in June, having guided Spurs to a first European trophy since 1984.
Even so, the Europa League triumph masked what was a dire domestic campaign. Tottenham laboured to a 17th-placed finish, losing 22 times. Were it not for the tactical incompetence of the three promoted sides, they would have been in real trouble.
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Conversely, Forest flew under Espirito Santo. Granted the Tricky Trees endured a disappointing end to the season, winning only two of their final eight matches. It ultimately resulted in a seventh-placed finish despite sitting in the Champions League spots for a substantial period of time. Even so, Espirito Santo took Forest from the brink of relegation to the Europa League. Albeit via off-field issues that saw them take Crystal Palace’s place in the competition.
Crucially, Espirito Santo did so by implementing a pragmatic approach. Forest managed the third lowest possession in the league last season (40.7%). They were known for sitting in a low block to frustrate opponents before striking on the counter. The Midlands side made more clearances per game (31.1) than any other team in the Premier League, with centre-back duo Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo both performing exceptionally to protect Matz Sels between the sticks.
Going forward, they weren’t the most prolific, netting the joint-fewest goals (58) of those to finish in the top half. Espirito Santo’s side scored the fifth-most counter-attacking goals (7) in the division. And as they looked to break forward at speed, Forest also managed to win free-kicks in dangerous positions. That helped them score more set-piece goals (17) than any other team.
Which makes the appointment of Postecoglou all the more… intriguing. While he worked wonders to change the culture at Tottenham upon his 2023 appointment to make them a more forward-thinking side, Postecoglou is the antithesis to Forest’s pragmatism. Tottenham scored more goals (64) than Forest last season, all the while conceding the fifth most (65) in the division.
Tottenham also had a higher possession average (54.8%), a better pass accuracy (85% to 78.7%) and managed more shots per game (13.1 to 12.2). Were it not for Postecoglou’s relationship with owner Evangelos Marinakis, there is reason to suggest the Australian wouldn’t have received the call to succeed Espirito Santo in the first place. Indeed, Forest have swung from one extreme to the other in a matter of hours.
Fortunately for Postecoglou, Espirito Santo also favoured a 4-2-3-1 setup. So the core personnel are in place for the former to translate his ideas across to the squad. Additionally, Postecoglou will have something he didn’t have the luxury of at Spurs – direct, one-on-one wingers. One of the reasons his system struggled to work in north London was a lack of backing in the market.
Postecoglou’s system worked well in Scotland because he was able to call upon the likes of Jota, Liel Abada and Daizen Maeda. The trio offered the requisite directness from wide that aided Postecoglou. He wasn’t afforded the same benefit at Tottenham, at least until they signed Wilson Odobert. And even then, the Frenchman had his fair share of injury issues.
Even after the departure of Anthony Elanga, however, Forest have ample, dribbly wingers that’ll thrive under Postecoglou. Callum Hudson-Odoi and Dilane Bakwa are the standouts for the respective roles, while Dan Ndoye, Omari Hutchinson and James McAtee are also handy options if required.
The downside, though, will come with Postecoglou potentially demanding Forest implement a high defensive line. He did so at Tottenham last season, and it proved disastrous on occasion. We can’t forget the injury crisis that forced Radu Dragusin and Archie Gray to partner up at centre-back. The former’s lack of speed across the distance was routinely exploited up until his season-ending ACL injury.
Milenkovic and Murillo may not be the slowest centre-backs in the Premier League. But they don’t possess the same recovery pace as Micky van de Ven. Or the elite defensive qualities as Tottenham captain Cristian Romero. The pair forged a fine partnership in part due to their proactive approach to defending. It meant they were able to dig in deep and repel attack after attack after attack.
Postecoglou did show a pragmatic side to his managerial game in Tottenham’s Europa League triumph, the final in Bilbao a case in point. But the lack of tactical flexibility in the Premier League ultimately cost him a shot at ‘season three’. If he can strike a happy medium between Espirito Santo’s practical approach and ‘Angeball’, he could go some way to proving his doubters wrong.
Narrative of course dictates that Postecoglou’s first game back in Premier League management comes at Arsenal this weekend, a team he never beat while in charge of Tottenham. Forest also have a dire record in the capital, losing their last four visits to the Emirates, and conceding 15 goals in the process. All the makings for a Forest win are in place, in what would be the perfect start to Postecoglou’s Midlands reign.