Nicolas Jackson has been heavily linked with a move away from Chelsea.
The Blues have bolstered their attack this summer, and Jackson has fallen down the pecking order. This has led to interest in the Senegalese striker, and a departure seems possible.
Newcastle United have now emerged as the front-runners for Jackson’s signature after yet another blow in the transfer window. The Magpies had been chasing Benjamin Sesko, but he appears to have chosen Manchester United.
Newcastle have also missed out on Hugo Ekitike, while Alexander Isak is reportedly pushing for a move away. They could do a lot worse than signing Jackson.
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What does Jackson bring?
Jackson has had two full seasons in the Premier League after joining Chelsea from Villarreal in the summer of 2023. The Senegalese striker has played 65 matches in that time, amassing just over 5,000 minutes.
Jackson gets a bad rap from opposition fans about his lack of goals, scoring 24 in the Premier League. But it’s not a terrible return for a player finding his feet in a new league after a breakout season. It’s easy to forget that Jackson has only just turned 24.
The Senegalese striker has averaged 0.43 goals per 90 minutes in the Premier League since his debut. That places him in the top 20 among players with at least 3,240 minutes played in the league since the start of the 2023-24. For clarity, that’s exactly half the available minutes.
Jackson has averaged 2.78 shots per 90 across his two Premier League seasons, again breaking into the top 20 in the division. But he does rank a lot higher for shots on target. The Senegalese striker has averaged 1.36 shots on target per 90, placing him sixth in the Premier League since the start of the 2023-24 season. His shooting accuracy of 48.72% is also eighth in the Premier League during that time. That’s not anything to turn your nose up at.
Jackson wasn’t too bad with big chances either. The 24-year-old has averaged 0.32 big chances scored per 90 in the Premier League, the 13th-most in the division over the past two seasons.
What about Expected Goals? It’s no surprise to see that Jackson’s numbers aren’t bad there either. Jackson averaged 0.5 xG per 90 in the Premier League since 2023-24, with seventh-most in the division. While that’s a -0.07 difference between xG and goals, Jackson’s finishing isn’t the problem.
In his first season at Chelsea, Jackson had 0.53 xG and 0.52 post-shot xG per 90. So that was him slightly lowering his chances of scoring based on his shot placement. But last season, Jackson had 0.46 xG and 0.47 post-shot xG per 90 — a slight improvement. Overall, it worked out to 0.5 xG and 0.49 post-shot xG per 90. Although that still is a negative difference, it’s minute. And all of that is without penalties.
Jackson isn’t just about goals either. His off-the-ball runs are a nightmare for opposition defenders to track, which opens up spaces for his teammates. The Senegalese striker is tireless in pressing, averaging 0.82 possessions won in the attacking third per 90 in the Premier League since his debut. That’s in the top 20 in the division.
He’s also averaged 5.73 touches in the opposition box per 90 in the Premier League and 1.21 lay off passes completed.
How does Jackson compare?
Obviously, Newcastle would sign Jackson as a replacement for Isak. So, can he replace the Swede?
Well, there’s no surprise that Jackson does pale in comparison to Isak when comparing last season. The Swede was excellent, with only Mo Salah scoring more than him in the Premier League. But the numbers aren’t massively different.
Jackson outshot Jackson in the Premier League last season with 2.6 shots (excluding blocks) per 90 to Isak’s 2.5. Isak was more accurate with those shots, though, hitting the target 60.53% of the time. Jackson’s shot accuracy (excluding blocks) was 54.69%. But that still levelled out to 1.5 shots on target per 90 each.
Isak unsurprisingly bettered Jackson for goals at 0.8 per 90 to 0.5, and non-penalty goals (0.7 per 90 to 0.5). His conversion rate was almost double too, with Isak converting 30.26% of his shocks compared to Jackson’s 15.62%. But Jackson’s volume of shots doesn’t hurt his chances of scoring.
Jackson is also decent in and around the box, even if he trails Isak slightly. The Senegalese striker had 6.2 touches in the opposition box per 90, not too far behind Isak’s 6.9 per 90. The pair were level for lay-offs completed too, with 1.6 per 90.
Now, we’re not saying Jackson can replace Isak’s quality immediately. But if they are looking to replace the Swede in the starting XI, Jackson is an excellent acquisition.