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Squawka / News / Man City 4-1 Arsenal: New title race probability prediction & odds as De Bruyne decides summit meeting

Man City 4-1 Arsenal: New title race probability prediction & odds as De Bruyne decides summit meeting

Manchester City are now 1/16 favourites with a 92.06% probability rating (provided by Opta StatsPerform) to successfully defend their Premier League crown after running out 4-1 winners over Arsenal this evening.

Pep Guardiola’s men now sit two points behind the leaders but have two games in hand. Kevin De Bruyne, who always seems to put in a strong performance against the Gunners, was City’s hero this evening. He scored a brace as well as creating another. Rob Holding pulled one back late on before Erling Haaland, who else, restored the champion’s three-goal lead.

Here’s how the players rated at the Etihad Stadium:

Man City

Ederson – 6 – Just when a clean sheet looked certain, Ederson would pick the ball out of his goal. Until that moment he was at best an onlooker.

Manuel Akanji – 7 – Started ahead of Aymeric Laporte, who is benched. This was the major decision Guardiola had to make in the absence of Nathan Ake due to a hamstring injury. He played more like an orthodox left-back consequently keeping tabs on Bukayo Saka whom he kept pretty much under control.

Rúben Dias – 6.5 – The defending champions are so much better with Dias starting this season. They concede less than a goal per game while boasting a 77.4% win percentage. Dias didn’t finish the game unblemished as Michael Oliver booked him seconds before half-time after kicking out at White.

Kyle Walker – 7 – “One way to play against City is on the counter-attack. I would play [Kyle] Walker in that game to stop Martinelli,” said Micah Richards before the game. Guardiola was listening, retained Walker in City’s starting lineup, and the full-back nullified whatever threat Arsenal produced down their left flank.

Rodri – 7 – Earned a late booking though prior to his transgression the Spanish deep-lying playmaker was his usual metronomic best. 

John Stones – 7.5 – Saw a headed effort on the stroke of half-time chalked off for offside before it was overturned by the video assistant referee. White’s right foot was playing the centre-back-turned-midfielder onside.

Jack Grealish – 8 – Another under-the-radar performance from the ex-Villian who once again excelled on Man City’s left flank. On the front foot, he continued to feed Haaland while dribbling and winning duels but never once abandoned his defensive duties by tracking back and helping Akanji deal with Saka. Grealish won possession on five occasions with Rodri (eight) being more productive in this respect. 

Ilkay Gündogan – 7.5 – He’s been starting recently and it remains to be seen whether he remains at the Etihad beyond this season with his contract expiring in a few month’s time. On today’s showing, a vintage Gündogan showcase, Guardiola would be hard-pressed to lose him.

Kevin De Bruyne – 9.5 – For years there was a famous banner reading ‘Enjoy Laudrup’ hanging on the Camp Nou terraces. Michael’s equivalent in today’s game is undoubtedly Kevin De Bruyne. It’s well past due that similar signage is displayed at the Ethiad, especially as the Belgian playmaker is racing towards Premier League immortality. Both of his goals were sublime, to die for.

Bernardo Silva – 7.5 – “Bernardo is a football player, he can play everywhere because he understands the game perfectly and every action with and without the ball,” Guardiola recently said when asked about his ‘number 20’, so he was always going to start a game of this magnitude, and the Portuguese forward didn’t let his manager down.

Erling Haaland – 9 – Is there a more in-form striker playing in Europe at the moment? On another day, Haaland bags a hat trick. His contributions tonight were still of the highest order. Tonight he broke the record for most Premier League goals in a 38-game season. Alan Shearer and Andy Cole’s joint-most effort (34), which they set in 1994/95 and 1993/94 respectively, is now within striking distance. 

Substitutes:

Riyad Mahrez (for Gündogan 72) – 4 – Had a moment in stoppage time when he could have played Haaland in but was in two minds.

Julian Alvarez (for De Bruyne 80) – N/A – A late sub.

Phil Foden (for Grealish 88) – N/A – A late sub.

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Arsenal

Aaron Ramsdale – 6 – He began the game nervously and could have perhaps done better for De Bruyne’s opening goal. His positioning left a lot to be desired. The besieged Ramsdale would later make amends to deny Haaland on several occasions. 

Oleksandr Zinchenko – 5 – You can’t fault his work rate this evening. Zinchenko, back at his old stomping ground, was forced to put in an honest shift by Silva and De Bruyne as well as Walker whenever he got forward.

Gabriel – 4 – Had another effort on goal and was kept on his toes by Haaland and those marauding City forwards throughout.

Rob Holding – 4 – The absence of William Saliba continues to be felt. No one sets out to play below par, this isn’t golf, but Holding — for all his efforts– just falls short and tonight he really struggled to cope with Haaland, but did manage to get on the scoresheet late on.

Ben White – 4 – He’s been really good this season and came up with a vital intervention, with De Bruyne bearing down on goal, to prevent City going 2-0 up before the half-hour mark.

Granit Xhaka – 4 – Back in the starting lineup after missing Arsenal’s draw with Southampton through illness. His presence was badly missed last time out, unfortunately, was ineffective against City’s midfield pressing carousel.

Thomas Partey – 3.5 – Had the visitor’s first real effort on goal. Saw his now trademark side-footed effort from the edge of the box go a couple of yards wide ten minutes before half-time. Ill discipline, though, reared its ugly head as Partey gave the free-kick away which led to Stone’s goal.

Martin Ødegaard – 5 – This game marked his 100th appearance for the Gunners in all competitions. Ødegaard usually is the one who makes Arsenal tick but such was City’s dominance the creative Norwegian was dealing with scraps.

Gabriel Martinelli – 4 – No player in red came into tonight’s game in better form than Martinelli, but the Brazilian forward was largely anonymous before Arteta took him off.

Gabriel Jesus – 5 – Not the best return for City’s former unsung hero. Jesus played on the fringes of the game much to every travelling supporter’s frustration.

Bukayo Saka – 4.5 – Tipped for a big performance but the England international was boxed out by Akanji and company. Saw a free-kick blaze over deep into the second half.

Substitutes:

Leandro Trossard (for Xhaka 60) – 5 – Since his first Premier League game for Arsenal in January, the Belgian has more assists in the competition than any other player (8).

Jorginho (for Martinelli 60) – 4 – Ineffective, but the game was already lost.

Emile Smith Rowe (for Ødegaard 72) – N/A – A late sub.

Eddie Nketiah (for Saka 80) – N/A – A late sub.

Player name (for Jesus 80) – N/A – A late sub.

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