Our Bills vs Texans prediction is the closest call among the good teams. Buffalo visit NRG Stadium on Sunday, September 13. Both finished 2025 at 12-5, and both begin the NFL season here. Squawka Signal’s current read, and where the value sits, appears in the block directly below. Similarly, Signal rates the full Week 1 slate.
Seven points of differential separated these two across an entire season. Buffalo finished plus 116 and Houston plus 109.
The styles diverge sharply, though. Buffalo scored 481 points; Houston conceded just 295, the meanest defensive record of any side playing this week.
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
Buffalo BillsWin prob53%
Houston TexansWin prob47%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC). Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON). Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: bet365.
Bills vs Texans: our editor’s prop
One editorial call to sit alongside the live Signal numbers above.
AT 
Our prop
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Bills vs Texans: 2025 season form
Buffalo finished 12-5 at plus 116; Houston 12-5 at plus 109. Houston closed on nine straight wins.
| 2025 regular season | Bills | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-5 | 12-5 |
| Points for | 481 | 404 |
| Points against | 365 | 295 |
| Point differential | +116 | +109 |
| Sacks recorded | 36 | 47 |
| Sacks allowed | 40 | 31 |
| Interceptions made | 13 | 19 |
| Third-down offence | 44.8% | 37.2% |
| Red-zone offence | 66.2% | 46.3% |
| Red zone allowed | 59.6% | 56.8% |
| Opponent passer rating | 79.8 | 76.2 |
The contrast is offence against defence. Buffalo scored 481 points to Houston’s 404, while Houston conceded 295 to Buffalo’s 365. Neither edge is obviously the larger.
Bills vs Texans injury report and team news
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags appear. For now, both sides expect their first-choice quarterbacks.
Josh Allen starts for Buffalo with James Cook III in the backfield after a league-leading 1,621 rushing yards. The receiving group is led by Khalil Shakir, moreover.
C.J. Stroud starts for Houston. Nico Collins leads the receivers after 1,117 yards, meanwhile, with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. anchoring the defence.
Buffalo BillsHouston TexansThe matchup that settles it: the best rushing attack against the meanest defence
James Cook III ran for 1,621 yards in 2025, more than any other player in the league. Buffalo scored 481 points on the back of it.
Houston conceded 295 points across the same season, the lowest figure of any team playing this week, with 47 sacks from Hunter and Anderson. Consequently something has to give, and neither side has an obvious answer.
Players to watch
- Josh Allen (BUF, QB): 3,668 passing yards for a 12-5 team.
- James Cook III (BUF, RB): 1,621 rushing yards, indeed the most in the league.
- Danielle Hunter (HOU, DE): 15 sacks, notably the most on either roster.
- Nico Collins (HOU, WR): 1,117 receiving yards, moreover, for the meanest defence on the slate.
How to watch Bills vs Texans
The game kicks off at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 13 at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. CTV shows a Sunday afternoon game in each region, meanwhile, and RDS carries the French-language coverage. Because the CTV pick is regional, DAZN is the reliable route to this particular game through NFL Game Pass. Our full guide to watching the NFL in Canada sets out every window. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Bills vs Texans |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| TV | CTV (regional) / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN (NFL Game Pass) / CTV.ca |
| Week | Week 1, 2026 NFL season |
Bills vs Texans prediction and score projection
Our Bills vs Texans prediction is a narrow Buffalo win, and narrow is the operative word. These two finished 2025 seven points apart on differential.
Notably, Signal currently puts Buffalo at 53% and Houston at 47%, with a projected line of Buffalo Bills -1.
The Texans hold home field, the better defence and a nine-game winning run. However, Buffalo scored 77 more points and hold the league’s leading rusher.
So we will take the Bills, 24-22, and back a winner rather than points. Which side carries the value, though, is a separate question from who wins, and the live read on that sits in the Signal block.
Signal rates every game on our NFL picks page. Meanwhile the title race is priced through Super Bowl LXI odds, with both conferences on the NFC and AFC Championship pages. Finally, player markets sit with our NFL player props coverage, and kickoff is confirmed on NFL.com.
Bills vs Texans FAQ
There is almost nothing in it. Both finished 12-5, seven points apart on differential. Ultimately the live win probability and the current market price both sit in the Signal block on this page.
This one may not offer a clean spread at all. Both teams finished 12-5 and seven points apart on differential, so back a winner rather than points. The live line, if there is one, sits in the Signal block.
CTV shows a Sunday afternoon game in each region and RDS carries the French-language coverage, while DAZN has every game through NFL Game Pass. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 13. Notably the CTV pick is regional.
Josh Allen, with James Cook III in the backfield. Meanwhile C.J. Stroud starts for Houston.
Bills 24-22. Buffalo scored 77 more points last season, though Houston conceded the fewest of any team playing this week.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change