The three promoted clubs — Coventry City, Hull City and Ipswich Town — start the 2026-27 season where the market almost always puts them: at the front of the relegation queue.
Burnley, West Ham and Wolves went down last season; Coventry, Hull and Ipswich come up to replace them. Recent history is unkind to the promoted sides — more often than not at least two of the three go straight back — and that is where the relegation market will open when it does.
Our Squawka Signal survival model is now live for 2026-27 — a data-led relegation probability for every club, set against the live market. Pre-season it blends recent form with the promoted sides’ Championship level; it sharpens as games are played. Follow the fight on the Premier League hub and the live table.
Premier League 2026-27 Relegation — Squawka Signal
1
Hull CitySquawka61.7%Kalshi–▬ —bet36574%▼ Much safer
2
Ipswich TownSquawka42.5%Kalshi–▬ —bet365–▬ —
3
Coventry CitySquawka41.5%Kalshi–▬ —bet365–▬ —
4
Leeds UnitedSquawka16.2%Kalshi–▬ —bet365–▬ —
5
SunderlandSquawka16.1%Kalshi–▬ —bet36522%▼ Safer
6
EvertonSquawka15.7%Kalshi–▬ —bet3658%▲ More danger
7
Crystal PalaceSquawka14.6%Kalshi–▬ —bet36514%▬ In line
8
FulhamSquawka13.7%Kalshi–▬ —bet36515%▬ In line
9
Nottingham ForestSquawka12.5%Kalshi–▬ —bet36510%▬ In line
10
Tottenham HotspurSquawka11.9%Kalshi–▬ —bet3652%▲ Far more danger
11
AFC BournemouthSquawka9.8%Kalshi–▬ —bet3658%▬ In line
12
BrentfordSquawka9.2%Kalshi–▬ —bet36510%▬ In line
13
Manchester UnitedSquawka7.4%Kalshi–▬ —bet3650%▲ More danger
14
Aston VillaSquawka7.2%Kalshi–▬ —bet3651%▲ More danger
15
Brighton & Hove AlbionSquawka7.0%Kalshi–▬ —bet3653%▲ More danger
16
Newcastle UnitedSquawka5.8%Kalshi–▬ —bet36510%▼ Safer
17
ChelseaSquawka5.1%Kalshi–▬ —bet3651%▲ More danger
18
LiverpoolSquawka1.8%Kalshi–▬ —bet3650%▬ In line
19
ArsenalSquawka0.3%Kalshi–▬ —bet3650%▬ In line
20
Manchester CitySquawka0.2%Kalshi–▬ —bet3657%▼ Safer
Squawka Rating = each club’s strength on a 0–100 scale. Model % = drop probability across 20,000 season simulations, updated as games are played. The verdict is how our model’s risk reads against the price: more danger = we make them likelier to go down than the market, safer = less likely. bet365 odds are shown for readers outside the US. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our Kalshi review, bet365 review and the Signal methodology.
Premier League 2026-27 relegation contenders
Squawka Signal’s three most likely to go down are Hull City, Ipswich Town and Coventry City — Hull City the clearest risk on 62%. These are the model’s numbers, a data-led survival read from 20,000 season simulations, and they move after every round.
Other Premier League 2026-27 markets
Beyond the drop, see our Premier League title odds and Golden Boot odds, plus the top-scorer charts. The hub tracks the table and fixtures.