Liga MX resets this weekend, and the Apertura 2026 title market opens with a twist: it is Guadalajara, not the reigning champions Cruz Azul, that the money makes favourite.
Cruz Azul lifted the Clausura 2026 from third on the Tabla General, their first title since 2021, seeing off Pumas UNAM over two legs. A new tournament wipes that slate clean — eighteen clubs, seventeen matchdays, a fresh Liguilla — and the market treats it as the open race it usually is.
Our Squawka Signal model is now live for Apertura 2026 — a data-led title probability for every club that runs the whole Liguilla, set against the live market. It updates after every matchday. Follow the race on the Liga MX hub.
Liga MX Apertura 2026 Champion — Squawka Signal
1
TolucaSquawka21.5%▬ No market
2
Club AméricaSquawka16.8%▬ No market
3
GuadalajaraSquawka10.2%▬ No market
4
TijuanaSquawka10.1%▬ No market
5
Cruz AzulSquawka9.7%▬ No market
6
Pumas UNAMSquawka9.5%▬ No market
7
MonterreySquawka7.3%▬ No market
8
Tigres UANLSquawka5.1%▬ No market
9
PachucaSquawka4.7%▬ No market
10
AtlasSquawka1.7%▬ No market
11
QuerétaroSquawka1.3%▬ No market
12
NecaxaSquawka1.2%▬ No market
13
Atlético San LuisSquawka0.5%▬ No market
14
Atlante FCSquawka0.2%▬ No market
16
PueblaSquawka0.1%▬ No market
17
JuárezSquawka0.0%▬ No market
18
Santos LagunaSquawka0.0%▬ No market
Squawka Rating = each club’s strength on a 0–100 scale. Model % = Apertura title probability across 10,000 simulations of the run-in and Liguilla, updated each matchday. Value = the market sits below our model, Overpriced = above it. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our Kalshi review and the Signal methodology.
Liga MX Apertura 2026 title contenders
Squawka Signal makes Toluca the Apertura 2026 favourite at 21.5%, with Club América next on 16.8%. Because the title is decided in the Liguilla, the field stays open — the model runs the play-in and every two-legged round, so a strong regular season is only half the job. These are the model’s numbers, updated each matchday.
How the Clausura 2026 finished
Cruz Azul beat Pumas UNAM 2-1 on aggregate across the two-legged Final to win the Clausura 2026, coming through as the third seed after edging both earlier knockout ties. Pumas and Guadalajara had led the regular-phase Tabla General. It is that group the Apertura 2026 picture starts from.
Liga MX Apertura 2026 format
The Apertura runs eighteen clubs over a 17-game regular phase, then the top six on the Tabla General go straight to the Liguilla Quarterfinals while the clubs placed 7th to 10th contest the Reclasificación play-in for the last two berths. The Quarterfinals, Semifinals and Final are two-legged ties.
Liga MX title odds FAQs
Who are the favourites for the Liga MX Apertura 2026?
The market makes Guadalajara a narrow favourite, with reigning champions Cruz Azul, Tigres UANL, Toluca and Club América all close behind — a tight, open race, as Liga MX title markets tend to be. Our Squawka Signal model probabilities follow once the season is underway.
Who won the last Liga MX title?
Cruz Azul won the Clausura 2026, beating Pumas UNAM 2-1 on aggregate in the Final for their first Liga MX title since 2021.
How is the Liga MX champion decided?
Each tournament runs a 17-game regular phase, then a knockout Liguilla: the top six qualify directly for the Quarterfinals, teams 7th to 10th play the Reclasificación for the final two spots, and the Quarterfinals, Semifinals and Final are two-legged.
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